Guardians vs Mariners Picks and Predictions: Bieber Shines in the Emerald City

After a loss to the M's in the series opener on Thursday, Shane Bieber looks to right the ship for Cleveland tonight. We're on the road team to prevail and the Under to hit tonight at T-Mobile Field — read why in our Guardians vs. Mariners betting picks.

JD Yonke - Contributor at
JD Yonke • Contributor
Aug 26, 2022 • 10:01 ET • 4 min read
Shane Bieber Seattle Mariners MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Friday’s nightcap on Apple TV+ sees Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Guardians (66-57) face off with Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners (68-57).

It’s a highly anticipated showdown between two teams that both have playoff aspirations. Cleveland is been a pleasant surprise this season, currently sitting four games up in the AL Central. Seattle needs a strong finish to secure a Wild Card spot, as the Baltimore Orioles are only 2.5 games back for the third and final berth.

Read more in our free MLB picks and predictions for the Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners on Friday, August 26.

Guardians vs Mariners odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Seattle opened as -115 favorites at home, but the line quickly moved in the other direction. Currently, the Mariners reside between even money and -105 depending on the book. The total opened at 7.0 and has already moved to 6.5 at some locations.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Guardians vs Mariners predictions

Picks made on 8/26/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Guardians vs Mariners game info

Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date: Friday, August 26, 2022
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV+

Guardians vs Mariners betting preview

Starting pitchers

Shane Bieber (8-7, 3.10 ERA): Bieber has been great this season, but his strikeout rate has plummeted from 33.1% to 24.7% in one season. The right-hander also hasn’t counteracted that major swing with improvements in many other areas. His 5.5% walk rate is the lowest it’s been since 2019, so it’s evident he’s pitched more toward contact this year. His 4.8% barrel rate is good but not great.

Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.52 ERA): Gilbert has been enjoying a coming-out party in 2022. After posting a 4.68 ERA as a rookie last year, his 3.52 ERA is much better this time around, and his 10-5 record has been a big plus for Seattle. Gilbert's 4.26 xERA does indicate regression may be coming, and that’s concerning once you factor in that he’s allowed 18 earned runs over his last four starts.


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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Cleveland is 5-1 in its last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Mariners

Guardians vs Mariners picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

In what’s expected to be a pitching duel, it’s difficult to give either side a huge advantage. Still, I believe Cleveland and Shane Bieber hold the edge in the starting pitching department Friday. Bieber’s 3.45 xERA and 2.83 FIP hold a noticeable advantage over Logan Gilbert’s 4.26 xERA and 3.78 FIP.

Both starting pitchers have performed admirably, but it’s clear to me where I give the advantage. As far as each team's lineup goes, Seattle holds a slight advantage in recent performance. In the month of August, the Mariners rank 14th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+, while the Guardians check in at 18th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+.

The Guardians have been road warriors, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. They’ve been pretty hot in general, posting a 12-5 mark across their last 17 games, including a 9-4 record against right-handed starters. The Mariners have been in fine form in their own right, going 39-18 in their last 57 overall and 7-2 in their last nine home games against a right-handed starter.

This is a very tight handicap, and the betting line reflects that as it’s essentially a pick'em. Both teams are treating every game with importance given the playoff implications that are on the line, and each club has some positive factors supporting a play on their side.

What it boils down to for me is this: Bieber is the better starting pitcher. The Guardians are 15-8 in games that he starts, and he’s posted a solid 3.00 ERA on the road this season. Gilbert has also struggled at T-Mobile Park, posting a 4.06 ERA at home.

Prediction: Guardians moneyline (-108 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

This one has a low total for a reason, as both teams are sending quality pitchers to the mound. The Guardians are 12-10 to the Under when Bieber starts, while the Mariners are 13-11 to the Under when Gilbert is on the mound.

The Under has recently been a great bet in Cleveland games, going 13-3-1 across its last 17 games. This is a matchup against a good Mariners team, but the Guardians are 5-0 to the Under in their last five games against a team with a winning record. Road games have been a similar story, as they’re 7-1-1 to the Under in their last nine away games.

Gilbert is a quality starting pitcher, and the Guardians have cashed the Under in 12 of their last 14 games against a right-handed starter. Seattle is been trending in a similar direction, going 4-0-1 to the Under in its last five home games and 4-0 the Under in its last four against a right-handed starter.

Bieber is obviously a very quality arm and could allow that trend to continue. Some books still have a listed total of 7.0 available, so I will be playing the Under at that number despite laying a little bit of juice.

Prediction: Under 7 (-118 at FanDuel)

Best bet

I’m rolling with the Under in this pitching duel. Bieber has been one of the game’s best pitchers for a few years and is facing a Mariners team that is 24-8 to the Under in its last 32 games against a right-handed starter.

It’s fair to assume that Bieber is better than a lot of arms Seattle is faced during that stretch. Gilbert is having a coming out season and faces a Cleveland team that has been trending hard toward the Under, going 13-3-1 over its last 17 games.

I’m betting on a low-scoring game for Friday’s nightcap on Apple TV+.

Pick: Under 7 (-118 at FanDuel)

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