Labor Day baseball concludes with a nightcap between two NL West rivals as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants.
These teams are headed in opposite directions, as the Dodgers have World Series ambitions while the Giants are fighting to stay in the Wild Card picture.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday, September 5.
Giants vs Dodgers best odds
Giants vs Dodgers picks and predictions
I’m rocking with the Under as Monday’s best bet between the Giants and Dodgers.
Los Angeles has a loaded lineup featuring stars like Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman. Such an imposing cast of characters might lead one to assume that they’re a team that plays to the Over, but that assumption would be far from the truth. The Dodgers are actually 56-65-12 to the Over this year.
Logan Webb allowed six earned runs the last time he faced the Dodgers, but he’s normally been pretty good against his rivals. Despite that blow-up, he’s still surrendered just a .697 OPS against Los Angeles across eight career starts. He has just a 4.0% barrel rate this season, indicating he does a great job of limiting hard contact — which is a must against a lineup this dangerous.
Andrew Heaney has a huge 35.4% strikeout rate this season and faces a Giants team that is 5-1-1 to the Under in its last seven games following a win. The left-hander is posting the best statistical season of his career and has a microscopic 1.05 ERA at home this season. He’s surrendered just three earned runs across over 25 innings at Dodger Stadium and faces a Giants team that has been slumping for the better part of two months.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-120 at BetRivers)
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Giants vs Dodgers betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Dodgers have been the superior team by a wide margin this season, amassing a +294 run differential compared to the Giants’ +10 mark. These are two fearsome rivals that were among the league’s top teams in 2021, but only one remains at that level in 2022.
Freeman, Betts, and the rest of L.A.'s lineup give the home team a significant edge at the plate. The Dodgers rank third in wOBA and second in wRC+ over the last 15 days, while the Giants check in at 20th in wOBA and 21st in wRC+.
A case can be made that Webb gives the Giants a starting pitching advantage in this matchup as he’s been pitching at a very high level for nearly two seasons. He won’t be intimated by the bright lights as he has plenty of experience pitching against his rivals. This will be his ninth career game against the Dodgers, against whom he has surrendered a .697 OPS in his career.
Heaney’s numbers look good this season, but the Giants have hit lefties pretty well this season. San Francisco ranks 11th in both wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws on the year.
This is a spot where the Giants can grab a win over their rivals despite being the inferior team.
Over/Under analysis
Even though the Giants have hit left-handed pitching well this season, it’s difficult to forecast an offensive explosion against Heaney. He’s been very effective when on the field this season and has a minuscule 1.05 ERA at home.
The Giants are 19-6-2 to the Under in their last 27 games after scoring five or more runs the previous game. That’s the case in this one on Monday night.
The Dodgers have a fearsome lineup, but it hasn’t resulted in them being a profitable Over team this season. On the contrary, they’re actually just 56-65-12 O/U. Playing Unders in Dodgers games this season has been a surprisingly profitable spot.
The Under is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last five games following a win.
Webb has a solid 3.12 ERA on the road this year and has been a reliable pitcher over the last two years. Keeping this Dodgers lineup down isn’t easy, but he’s definitely capable of limiting the damage.
Giants vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Monday, September 5, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, SportsNet LA
Starting pitchers
Logan Webb (11-8, 2.89 ERA): After a breakout season in 2021, San Francisco’s co-ace has been terrific yet again. One note of concern is that his 3.60 xERA is higher than his 2.89 actual ERA. With a low strikeout rate of 20.3%, he thrives off limiting hard contact and has allowed only a 4.0% barrel rate.
Andrew Heaney (2-1, 2.12 ERA): Heaney has been successful when he’s been on the field this season, as evidenced by his 2.12 ERA across only 10 starts. His 3.04 xERA and 3.29 FIP indicate that regression could be on the way, even though he’s allowed more than two earned runs only once this season. His massive 35.4% strikeout rate is the highest of his career.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 5-1-1 to the Under in their last seven Monday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
