In addition to our best bet for tonight's Sunday Night Baseball clash between the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs, we're highlighting a trio of player prop picks.
Cubs lefty Wade Miley might have the overall edge against San Francisco's bullpen day, but that doesn't mean he won't come away unscathed. Wilmer Flores, however, isn't likely to be the one to do damage against the southpaw. Ian Happ, on the other hand, offers fantastic value on the offensive front for Chicago.
Here are our favorite Sunday Night Baseball player prop picks for September 11.
MLB props for Giants vs Cubs
Picks made on 9/11/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Giants vs Cubs prop bets
I could walk for Mileys and Mileys
Cubs left-hander Wade Miley makes his second start since returning from the injured list and while the Giants aren't the most potent offense, they will give him fits.
San Francisco's lineup owns the fourth-best walk rate in MLB at 9.5%. Giants batters work counts and tend to force pitchers to throw a lot of pitches.
Miley hasn't pitched much this year but he's issued 10 walks in 23 innings (10.4% walk rate). He's gone Over 1.5 walks issued (his prop for tonight) in three of five starts. Even if his most extreme instance of losing command came when he issued five free passes in his first start, this is still a relatively low number against a very patient lineup.
Even with batters like Austin Slater and Brandon Belt absent with injury, David Villar, J.D. Davis, and Mike Yastrzemski all have walk rates higher than 11.5%.
Wade Miley Prop: Over 1.5 walks issued (+115 at DraftKings)
A low Flores
Giants infielder Wilmer Flores has had an absolutely atrocious start to September. He's batting .091 (3-for-33) with an 18 wRC+ in nine games and hasn't registered a single base hit in four straight. He's become a liability despite continuing to hit in the top third of San Francisco's lineup.
While the matchup, in theory, should be in his favor tonight with the lefty on the mound for Chicago, Flores is hitting slightly worse against southpaws (.234) than he is vs. right-handers (.236) this season. He's also striking out in almost 25% of his plate appearances this month compared to around 16% for the season.
He might be playing hurt — he was left out of Saturday's lineup — or he could be pressing. Either way, he can be had at +180 to go without a hit once again tonight.
Miley has actually done a decent job in suppressing hits in limited action this season, allowing just 17 base hits in his 23 innings and an expected batting average of just .229. I'm comfortable sprinkling a bit on Flores to go hitless again tonight in Wrigley.
Wilmer Flores Prop: Under 0.5 hits (+180)
The Happ-ening
The Cubs have not been good this season. It's been tough sledding but there have been signs of life in the second half as they've nearly played .500 ball at 23-24.
One shining light of optimism has been switch-hitting outfielder Ian Happ, who is batting .274 with seven home runs in the second half of the season so far after Chicago surprisingly elected not to deal him at the trade deadline.
With the Giants opting to start right-hander John Brebbia in a bullpen day (hardly a marquee matchup for a prime-time game), Happ is in a good position to add to his team-leading 56 extra-base hits.
San Francisco's bullpen, once a source of strength, has been abysmal in 2022. Giants relievers collectively own an 8.07 strikeouts per nine innings (third-lowest in MLB) and a 4.24 ERA (4.12 xFIP).
Happ stroked a pair of doubles on Saturday and has maintained an extremely steady line on the year. His September has been a little shaky, but that's largely due to a .211 BABIP instead of some form of negative regression. He's striking out less frequently than usual and his 40% hard-hit rate this month is the highest it's been all season. He's smoking the ball but not seeing results.
With the Giants already waving the white flag, I'm tagging Happ to go Over 1.5 total bases tonight.
Ian Happ Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
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