The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Coors Field for a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies that kicks off Monday night.
Conditions are ripe for offensive production, but what is the optimal way to attack Game 1 from a betting perspective? I’m heading to the player prop market with tonight’s MLB picks and Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions on Monday, June 17.
Dodgers vs Rockies prediction
My best bet
Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Coors Field is always a hitters' paradise given its elevation that separates it from other MLB ballparks. Monday night’s Game 1 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies sets up for run-scoring conditions as the wind will be blowing out at 10-14 mph to right field throughout the game.
I’ve long been trying to fade Dodgers starter James Paxton this season. He’s an aging 35-year-old who has lost a lot of zip off his fastball and the underlying numbers say that his 3.92 ERA has been quite fortunate.
The Big Maple’s xERA (5.06), FIP (5.16), and xFIP (5.44) are all harrowing accounts of his current skill level. He’s lost the ability to strike batters out and has a career-worst 13.8% K% and sixth percentile whiff rate (18%). He’s also walking more batters than ever before (12.6% BB%) and is allowing some worrying contact quality (30th percentile hard-hit rate, 35th percentile average exit velocity).
The books are wise to Paxton’s fraudulent ERA and the weather conditions, pricing the total up at 12. Some books are still showing a juiced 11.5 but the current line movement seems to indicate an upward trend.
The 29-year-old is having the best season of his career, setting new highs in wRC+ (113), wOBA (.350), BA (.265), OBP (.344), and SLG (.458). He’s hit lefties particularly well, blasting them for a 150 wRC+, .316 BA, and .519 SLG. That’s an ominous line for Paxton.
The slugger’s Statcast numbers are great. He mashes the ball, ranking in the 98th percentile in both hard-hit% (54.4%) and average exit velocity (93.9 mph). He’s able to make great contact (91st percentile barrel%, 86th percentile launch angle sweet-spot percentage) and his main weakness is a proclivity for swinging and missing (28th percentile whiff rate), but that concern is mitigated against Paxton and his fourth percentile K%.
McMahon has found success at the hitter-friendly Coors Field in his career, posting an OPS that is nearly 100 points higher at home (.807) than on the road (.709) since 2022. He’s also been in fine form, averaging 1.9 total bases across his last 10 games and exceeding 1.5 total bases in three of his last five.
Dodgers vs Rockies same-game parlay (SGP)
Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 total bases
Rockies team total Over 5.5
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 total bases
The Rockies have been on fire at the dish against left-handers, posting a 136 wRC+ (seventh) and a .383 wOBA (third) across the last 20 days. With Paxton begging for regression and the environment ripe for scoring runs at Coors Field, the offense should expect a big day.
On the other side of things, Colorado starter Cal Quantrill has reverse splits and has allowed a .275 BA to right-handed hitters since 2022. Teoscar Hernandez has been red hot, averaging 3.0 total bases across his last 10 games. His continued success will be important for Dave Roberts’ ballclub now that Mookie Betts is on the shelf with a fractured left hand after being hit by a pitch on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Rockies odds
Dodgers vs Rockies live odds
Dodgers vs Rockies opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (-120) | Colorado +1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -180 | Colorado +150
- Over/Under: Over 11.5 | Under 11.5
Dodgers vs Rockies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams, although they’ve split the last four games at two games apiece.
- The Rockies have covered the run line just four times in their last 15 games.
- The Dodgers tend to get into high-scoring games when Paxton is on the bump, going 5-0 O/U in his last five starts.
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Dodgers vs Rockies trend
McMahon has gone Over 1.5 total bases in three of his last five games while averaging 3.4 total bases. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies
Dodgers vs Rockies game info
| Location: | Coors Field, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 6-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet Los Angeles, COLR |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (6-1, 3.92 ERA) |
| Rockies starting pitcher: | Cal Quantrill (6-4, 3.30 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Rockies latest injuries
Dodgers vs Rockies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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