Dodgers vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Pitching Duel at Petco

It’s Cinco de Mayo at the ballpark as the Los Angeles Dodgers (19-13) visit their National League West counterparts, the San Diego Padres (17-15), in a Friday night game. 

This will be the first matchup of a three-game series that could see some ramifications for the NL West standings. Currently on a six-game winning streak, the Dodgers are 1.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and two games ahead of San Diego. 

What’s our best bet for Game 1? Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers and Padres on Friday, May 5 to find out.

Dodgers vs Padres odds

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Dodgers vs Padres predictions

Friday’s Game 1 between the Dodgers and Padres figures to garner plenty of interest between two of the most talented teams in the big leagues. Both are in fine form heading into the series, as the Dodgers have won six straight, while the Padres have won four of their last five. 

There’s a great pitching matchup on tap as Clayton Kershaw steps to the mound for the Dodgers, while Yu Darvish gets the call for the Padres. 

Kershaw has been electric this season and is in terrific form after allowing just one earned run in 20 innings pitched across his last three starts. He’s been masterful at fooling batters, as his 14.9% swinging strike rate is elite and is above his career average of 12.5%. 

Kershaw has started 20 games at Petco Park in his career. He’s performed quite well, posting an 11-4 record, 1.87 ERA, and 0.86 WHIP across 125 innings. That’s more than enough of a sample size and the resume is impressive, so it’s safe to say that San Diego is a second home for the veteran left-hander. 

Darvish has also made plenty of appearances at Petco, naturally, and he too has performed quite well. Across 35 starts and 217 innings worth of data, Darvish has posted a 15-9 record with a 2.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. 

San Diego has decent numbers against left-handers (109 wRC+ and .331 wOBA), but they’re not notable. Bob Levin’s squad is 4-1 to the Under in its last five games against a left-handed starter. 

The Padres are 13-18-1 O/U on the year, which is a stark contrast to the Dodgers, who are 19-12-1 O/U. The Dodgers have been mashing during a recent six-game home stretch, especially against the Phillies, in which Dave Roberts’ club netted 36 total runs in a three-game series. 

That being said, a lot of those numbers were padded against a destitute Philadelphia bullpen, and one has to question whether that elite offensive performance will continue here on the road against Darvish, who has struck out 21 batters across his last 13 innings pitched at Petco. 

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in San Diego, and I’ll be betting on that trend to continue on Friday night in a strong starting pitching matchup. 

My best bet: Under 7.5 (+105 at Caesars)

Dodgers vs Padres moneyline analysis

The Padres opened at +104 but it’s essentially a pick ‘em now, with most books pricing the Dodgers as a slight favorite. The best prices available at current are +100 for the Padres and -110 for the Dodgers. Be sure to shop around as always.

The Dodgers have usually found success in this matchup, going 66-30 across their last 96 games in San Diego — a 68.8% winning percentage. They’ve hit right-handed pitching much better than left-handed pitching this year (126 wRC+ against righties compared to a 90 wRC+ against lefties), and going back to last year, are 70-27 in their last 97 games against right-handed starters. 

Both teams enter this contest after an off-day. That usually hasn’t been a good thing for San Diego, who is 1-5 in its last six games following a day of rest. The Dodgers are 2-1 this season after an off-day, and going back a bit, are 53-24 in their last 77 such games.

There has to be a starting pitching edge for Kershaw, although perhaps not to the extent that surface-level stats would lead you to believe. His numbers have been partly boosted by an unsustainably low .215 BABIP, which is down from .269 in his career and is unsupported by his jump in barrel rate to 7.2%. 

Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under analysis

There is still a juiced 8 available at -120 odds on the total, although most books have moved down to 7.5. There are good odds on that at current, as EVEN is popping at many books, while slight plus money (+105) is available as well, which I’ve chosen to target with my best bet. 

It’s been windy in Southern California lately, which has affected the handicap on totals. Current forecasts for Friday night at Petco do call for winds of 10.3 mph at the time of the first pitch, but that wind will be blowing toward the first-base line in the stands and therefore shouldn’t have much of an impact. The wind is supposed to decrease to 6.9 mph and even change its path more toward home plate by the time the game draws to a conclusion. 

Going back to the start of last season, the Dodgers are 39-46-6 O/U as an away favorite, which is good for a 54.1% hit rate on the Under. In that span, they are 8-11-1 O/U (57.9% to the Under) after a day of rest. 

San Diego has been profitable to the Under at home, going 45-54-2 O/U (54.6% to the Under) since the start of last season. The Padres enter this contest on a small run to the Under after going 2-6 O/U across their last eight games overall. 

Dodgers vs Padres game info

Dodgers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (5-1, 1.89 ERA): The star left-hander has been aging like a fine wine, getting off to a superb start in his age-35 season. His 2.86 xERA and 3.05 FIP both indicate some regression, but that’s to be expected when your ERA is an unbelievable 1.89. His strikeout rate (28.5%) and walk rate (3.5%) are both better than his career norms, although there is some slight concern with his 7.2% barrel rate — up from 4.2% a year ago and 5.1% in his career.

Yu Darvish (1-2, 3.60 ERA): Darvish has been running a bit hot and cold. He’s allowed just a single earned run in three separate starts this season, but has surrendered nine combined earned runs in his other two starts. His 3.28 xERA and 3.90 FIP are a bit of a mixed bag, and his 9.7% walk rate is mostly to blame for the inflated FIP. One positive is that his 6.7% barrel rate is the lowest it’s been in a season since 2020, so he is limiting hard contact. 

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The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams at Petco Park. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Padres

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