The Miami Marlins have fallen into a slump after a fast start to 2025, but things may be turning around after snapping a six-game slide against the Athletics over the weekend, which was followed up by a heartbreaking loss.
My Dodgers vs. Marlins predictions will cover why a brutal matchup for Miami’s starter could work in conjunction with a tired bullpen on the other side to deliver us some runs.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Monday, May 5.
Dodgers vs Marlins prediction
My Dodgers vs Marlins best bet: Over 9.5 (+100 at Caesars)
After an utterly impressive season down in the minor leagues, Ben Casparius finally earned a shot with the Dodgers late in 2024. He delivered a 2.16 ERA and 1.73 FIP in a relief role, and after cruising through some outings this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers, once again hurt by injury, have decided to stretch him back out as a starter.
Now, he’s yet to complete four innings, and we’ll likely see some Yoendrys Gomez in relief — a long reliever who has struggled. L.A. is likely without Luis Garcia and Anthony Banda after they worked back-to-back nights, and Jack Dreyer may be limited as well, so there’s a chance Casparius pitches a bit deeper if he can. He’s done an excellent job at pitching to fly balls and owns a tidy .221 Expected Batting Average next to great strikeout and walk numbers, so he’s certainly going to be tough to face.
It would be the wrong time to run into one of those guys for the Miami Marlins, who sit 25th in wRC+ over the last two weeks. The good news is that they’ve maintained acceptable power numbers and are still striking out at a slim 20.1% clip, and if they can chase Casparius early, they can find a way to hit against a taxed Dodgers bullpen.
Their lead man in the rotation, meanwhile, likely doesn’t stand much of a chance. The Dodgers are yet again one of the top teams in baseball versus ground-ball arms, and Sandy Alcantara has been giving up very well-struck grounders to the tune of a .302 xBA. The strikeout and walk numbers are almost identical, which you never want to see, and the Dodgers remain one of the best teams in the league in both categories.
With the moneyline out of reach, I’m going to have to side with the total here. Miami is at a disadvantage against a fly-ball arm, but remains capable of hitting for enough power to get to a patchwork group of Dodgers pitchers. Alcantara, meanwhile, has shown no signs of life.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Dodgers vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases
Freddie Freeman is a hit machine at the moment, going 15-for-33 over his past nine games to come home with a hit in each contest, and now he’ll face a friendly arm in Alcantara, who will keep contact on the ground.
Freeman owns a .500 average in the early going against ground-ball pitchers, and on the flip side, we’ll take a look at a strong hitter against fly-ballers in Agustin Ramirez.
The catching prospect may have cooled off after his fast start, but he continues to hit the ball very hard, which leads me to believe this is just a minor blip on the radar. Ramirez can flat out hit, and six of his 10 hits are off fly-ball pitchers this season. Four of them have gone for extra bases.
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Dodgers vs Marlins odds
Dodgers vs Marlins live odds
Dodgers vs Marlins opening odds
- Moneyline: Dodgers -178 | Marlins +150
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-115) | Marlins +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Dodgers vs Marlins trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Marlins.
How to watch Dodgers vs Marlins and game info
| Location | loanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, 5-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet LA, FanDuel Sports Network Florida |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Ben Casparius (3-0. 2.91 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Sandy Alcantara (2-3, 8.31 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Marlins latest injuries
Dodgers vs Marlins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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