Dodgers vs Cubs Picks: Can Buehler Tame Cubs?

Walker Buehler gave up five runs his last time out, but count on one of baseball's most consistent pitchers to bounce back against the strikeout-happy Cubs.

May 3, 2021 • 17:00 ET
Walker Buehler MLB Los Angeles Dodgers
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Dodgers snapped their losing skid with a victory last night and will look to build on that success as they head to Wrigley Field for the first contest in a three-game set against the Chicago Cubs on Monday.

Oddsmakers expect them to do just that, with MLB betting lines installing L.A. as a hefty -189 favorite. 

We bring you our best free Dodgers vs. Cubs picks and predictions for Monday, May 3, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. 

Dodgers vs Cubs odds

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

Los Angeles landed on PointsBet USA's odds board as a -165 favorite Sunday afternoon, shot to -200 overnight, receded to -195 and returned to -200, where the moneyline sits at 5 p.m. ET. The Dodgers are attracting 81 percent of tickets and 85 percent of cash on the moneyline, and PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said a Dodgers win is the book's top MLB  liability tonight. The total opened at 8.5 (Under -115) and is now 8.5 (Over -120), with 84 percent of bets/90 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Dodgers vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.16 ERA): Buehler is coming off a rare poor outing, surrendering five runs, albeit with a season-high 10 strikeouts, in 6 1-3 innings versus the Reds.

The 26-year-old began his season with four consecutive quality starts and has been one of baseball's most reliable hurlers for the last several years.

Kyle Hendricks (1-3, 7.54 ERA): Hendricks is coming off a horrendous performance against the Braves, where he allowed 11 hits and seven runs before getting the hook midway through the third inning.

He was also roughed up by the Braves earlier this season, but in his three other starts this year, he has looked good.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Dodgers: Zach McKinstry 2B (Out), Cody Bellinger CF (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out).
Cubs: Ian Happ OF (Questionable), Joc Pederson OF (Out), Rowan Wick RP (Out). 
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 18-5 in the last 23 meetings between these teams in Chicago. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cubs.

Moneyline pick

Neither of these teams has looked good recently, with the Dodgers going 4-10 in their last 14 games and the Cubs going 2-7 in their previous nine contests. 

However, the Dodgers are still the World Series betting favorites after winning the Fall Classic last year. On the other hand, the Cubs are doing pretty much exactly what everybody expected of them as they struggle in that awkward border between former contenders and full rebuild. 

The Dodgers are coming off a huge 16-4 win over the Brewers, and despite a worrying tendency to strand base runners, they are still fifth in the majors with 5.05 runs per game, while ranking third with an OPS of .755. The Cubbies sit just outside the Top 10 in both categories, with 4.72 runs per game and an OPS of .717. 

The Cubs' other hitting numbers paint a worse picture, as they are just 22nd in batting average (.224) and strike out more than all but three teams in the majors. That's bad news against a stud like Dodgers starter Walker Buehler, who has a 2.93 ERA with an opponent batting average of .207 in 66 career starts. 

Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks is no slouch himself but hasn't been quite as consistent as Buehler, especially this year. Back the Dodgers. 

PREDICTION: Dodgers (-189)

Over/Under pick

Buehler is coming off a rough performance against the Reds but has still pitched to a sizzling 0.96 WHIP this season and had a 0.95 WHIP last year. The 2019 All-Star is quite simply one of the steadiest pitchers around and rarely has a bad game, let alone two in a row. 

While the Dodgers scored 16 runs yesterday they did so against a pitcher making his big-league debut in Alec Bettinger, and the Brewers rookie looked like a sacrificial lamb as he gave up nine runs in the first two innings. It won't be quite so easy for L.A. tonight as they take on a crafty veteran in Hendricks. 

Hendricks is also coming off an ugly start but has been solid against teams other than the Braves this season, allowing five runs across 15 innings in his other three starts. And he has a history of dominating at home, pitching to a 2.65 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in 91 career games at Wrigley Field. 

The Dodgers have gone 10-4 to the Under in Buehler's last 14 starts while the Under is 21-8-1 in the Cubs last 30 games at home. Take the Under tonight. 

PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-105)

Dodgers vs Cubs betting card

  • ML L.A. Dodgers (-189)
  • Under 8.5 (-105)

Picks made on 5/03/2021 at 11:00 a.m. ET

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