The much-anticipated debut of Carlos Rodon as a New York Yankee is set to hit the Bronx tonight as the Bombers host the Chicago Cubs in a three-game weekend set. The home side is sitting as decent -175 favorites in the MLB odds with a total of 8.5.
Despite the ceiling of the lefty starter, Rodon threw just 58 pitches in his last rehab start and recorded only 11 outs. Is his projected leash enough of an edge to shop around for MLB player prop Unders?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Yankees on Friday, July 7.
Cubs vs Yankees odds
Cubs vs Yankees predictions
Carlos Rodon is making his first start with the Yankees after an arm injury and back issues shut him down early in Spring Training. He enters today having thrown just 58 pitches in his last rehab start on July 1 and Aaron Boone has already mentioned the words “pitch count” and getting him built up.
With the All-Star break around the corner, there is no reason for the Yankees to push the starter who THE BAT is projecting for just 73 pitches and 13.3 outs.
The Cubs are coming off a high-scoring series vs. the Brewers and have some hot sticks in the lineup including Cody Bellinger, who is hitting .360 since returning from injury and riding a 12-game hitting streak. Dansby Swanson could also suit up after missing yesterday’s series finale in Milwaukee.
Rodon is an elite starter but this is not the spot to expect much from him in his first start at Yankee Stadium. Hitting seven strikeouts is going to take a lot of pitches and this leash is too short today.
The market has been moving heavily to the Under but there is still some value on the Under 6.5 strikeouts at -126 (FanDuel) at the time of writing, and a play I’d bet until -140. Pinnacle is 30 points shorter as of 11 a.m. ET this morning.
My best bet: Rodon Under 6.5 strikeouts (-126)
Cubs vs Yankees same-game parlay
Rodon Under 6.5 strikeouts
Bellinger 2+ hits
Cubs F5 +0.5
It's not a great price on the Rodon Under Ks here, but it's one I'll take because the bet365 SGP is far above other books in terms of hold percentage.
Bellinger is the best stick in this lineup right now, and going from one hit to two hits pumps this SGP from +325 to +1,000. He's hitting lefties better than righties this season and has a multi-hit game in three straight and in five of his last seven. This prop is found in the milestones section at bet365.
I can't take the Cubs F5 moneyline at bet365 in the SGP as it is a three-way market, but I'm happy to get the +0.5 here at a solid price.
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Cubs vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs come into Yankee Stadium having played in a back-and-forth series vs. the Brewers, and now have to face the debuting Rodon as a decent +150 road dog.
This line opened Chicago +150, hit as long as +160, but has been bet back down to the opening price of +150. This is not a spot where I want to trust a Chicago bullpen that will be without some key arms and allowed five runs over 11 innings vs. the Brewers. However, the Cubs in the first five innings on the moneyline at +165 is looking like my favorite side.
Jameson Taillon has been a serviceable arm whose numbers could be even better, as he is dealing with a high BABIP and a low LOB%. His expected metrics are better than his actual numbers, and he faces a weak lineup in the Yankees who he is very familiar with having pitched there over the last two seasons.
Rodon was one of my favorites in the AL Cy Young odds before hitting the long-term IL, but he comes in tonight with a lot of questions.
First, he will be on a pitch count after having tossed less than 60 in his last rehab start on July 1. He might not see the fifth inning, which opens the door for a New York bullpen that could be without Albert Abreu and Wandy Peralta. I have zero faith in the Chicago bullpen, so a full-game Chicago moneyline is out of the question for me as New York has the later-innings advantage.
I have the Cubs as the better offense in this one and Taillon is a great starter to back at +165 on the F5 moneyline with the draw (a push) also being factored in here.
Bellinger is on fire, riding a 12-game hitting streak and hitting .360 since returning from injury, while the Cubs could get Swanson back after the shortstop sat out yesterday.
The Yankees will likely be without Jake Bauers, who is dealing with an upper-body injury and is bound for the IL. He has been playing serviceable innings for the Bombers and hitting in the top half of the order of late.
The Bombers were absolutely crushed by the Orioles last night, 14-1, and are 13-15 SU since Aaron Judge’s injury. They've scored four or fewer runs in 19 of those 28 games (68%).
This total opened at 8.5 and should close at 8. It’s tough to get excited about the Under with how bad the Cubs’ bullpen is and the unknowns with Rodon. I’m happy with the Cubs on the F5 ML at +165.
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Trend to know
The Cubs are 22-4 in their last 26 Friday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Yankees
Cubs vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankees Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, July 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, YES |
Starting pitchers
James Taillon (2-6, 6.93 ERA): Taillon will return to Yankee Stadium, which he called home for two seasons over 2021 and 2022 and pitched to a decent 4.01 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. He enters his 15th start of the season with a 59:13 K/BB rate over 63 2/3 innings and a 14% HR/FB rate. The flyball hurler is pitching slightly below his number with an xFIP 32 points lower than his actual FIP and a high .337 BABIP and a 56.2% LOB%. The Cubs are 2-12 SU when he starts, and THE BAT projects 86 pitches, 15.7 outs, 4.34 strikeouts, and 3.16 earned runs.
Carlos Rodon (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Rodon will be making his first start for the Yankees after back and forearm issues landed him on the 60-day IL. He threw just 58 pitches in his latest rehab start six days ago, where Aaron Boone said his pitch count would be in the low 60s. He will certainly be on a tight leash, and THE BAT is projecting 73 pitches, 13.3 outs, 6.02 strikeouts, and 1.66 earned runs.
