Cubs vs Twins Predictions, Picks, Odds: Pitchers On Target

The Cubs have fallen on hard times, but a win over the Cardinals on Wednesday may be enough to steer the ship in the right direction. Heading to Minnesota, they will attempt to take down a Twins side that’s feeling good after a series win over the Padres.

Let’s break down Cubs vs. Twins in our MLB picks and predictions for Friday, May 12.

Cubs vs Twins odds

Cubs vs Twins predictions

This pitching matchup doesn’t sound all that tantalizing, but I sure think it is. On one side of things you’ve got Drew Smyly, who owns a 3.05 ERA on the year, which looks even better next to a 2.76 xERA. His hard-hit rate is a low 27.1% on the year which has led to a .205 expected batting average, and that looks pretty good next to above-average strikeout and walk numbers.

On the other side, there’s Sonny Gray. All he’s done is allow six earned runs in 40 innings with a hot 29% strikeout rate. Walks have been a bit of an issue, but he’s been so exceptional at pitching to contact that it hasn’t really mattered.

On top of this, Minnesota is just 26th in wRC+ to lefties this year and 27th in wRC+ in the last two weeks. Chicago has hit the ball well this year as well but has seen its ISO drop to .138 in the last two weeks. This is a great spot to bet on a low-scoring game.

My best bet: Under 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Cubs vs Twins moneyline analysis

I think there’s plenty of value here in taking the road underdogs. Chicago has posted a 102 wRC+ in the last two weeks, and while its ISO has dropped to .138, that’s still an above-average mark. In addition to that, the Cubs are hitting .257 in the last two weeks with a high 10.2% walk rate.

We noted walks have been an issue for Gray, and we also touched on how poorly this Twins offense has hit lefties (and hit anyone in general over the last 14 days). Is Smyly really this much worse than Gray? I don’t think so, if you look at the underlying numbers, and I also think Gray may be in a spot of bother given the Cubs’ offensive profile.

With all of that said, 30% of the tickets here are on the Cubs, but a stronger 49% of the money is on the road team. This is a good spot.

Cubs vs Twins Over/Under analysis

I’ll tell you that while the splits favor the Cubs moneyline, they really favor the Under. A commanding 64% of the tickets are on the Under, but a heavy 83% of the money has come in there. I think it makes perfect sense given how strong both pitchers have been so far in 2023.

The Under has also cashed in six straight Twins games and is 20-16-1 in all Cubs games this season. Both bullpens have had good stretches and both offenses have run cold at times.

I think the walks could turn into trouble for Gray, but given his expected stats, I’m not too concerned about things getting out of hand.

Cubs vs Twins game info

Starting pitchers

Drew Smyly (3-1, 3.05 ERA): The left-hander has been running hot this year, but he did have a bit of a hiccup in his last outing, which lasted just 3 1/3 innings. He surrendered two earned runs on three hits and three walks against the lowly Nationals.

Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.35 ERA): The right-hander is also coming off his worst start of the season. Gray allowed three earned runs on four hits and three walks against the Guardians but has largely kept his opponents in check during the season.

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The Under is 5-0 in the Cubs’ last five road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Twins

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