Get set for the rubber match of a three-game series when the Pittsburgh Pirates welcome the Chicago Cubs to PNC Park this afternoon.
Paul Skenes is coming off a filthy outing over the Los Angeles Dodgers, and my Cubs vs. Pirates predictions expect a big day for second-year phenom.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, May 1.
Cubs vs Pirates prediction
My Cubs vs Pirates best bet: Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts (-103 at FanDuel)
Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes is beginning to look like the 2024 Skenes, and that’s a scary thought if you are the Chicago Cubs.
The reigning NL Rookie of the Year is coming off a beautiful outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he scattered five hits while fanning nine in the Pirates' 3-0 away victory.
It was the second consecutive start in which Skenes threw 100+ pitches, and the third time in six starts, the Pirates' righty fanned more than seven batters.
Skenes' arsenal has served him well since his call-up in 2024. The former LSU product has struck out 209 batters, and he’s enjoyed some success against the Chicago Cubs.
Chicago doesn’t strike out much against righties, but they have four sticks in the lineup with whiff rates north of 25%, and that’s no bueno against Skenes and his numerous off-speed offerings.
Skenes hasn’t dominated the strikeout markets this season as he did in his last start against the Dodgers. But he’s enjoyed great success against these Cubs, strikes out nearly 10 per nine at PNC Park, and pitches deep into his starts.
I expect the sharpness displayed in LA to carry over today against the Cubs.
Cubs vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts
Pirates F5 moneyline
Over 7.5
I like Skenes to have a big day with his arm, which should lead to a Pirates F5 victory.
Cubs righty Colin Rea has also been dealing, but these Pirates have a solid history against him that’s difficult to ignore.
Rea has surrendered an average of 5.2 earned runs in his last three starts against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are slashing .268/.305/.429/.724 with two bombs and 15 hits across 56 career at-bats against the righty, and they’ll get to him again.
The forecast calls for strong winds blowing out to left field, which will not hurt the Pirates’ cause offensively. However, the bullpen boasts a 4.54 xFIP that suggests regression. So, to protect against the relief corps blowing things, we'll take Pittsburgh to lead after five innings.
That should help the bog-scoring Cubs to continue a series trending Over the total. The Over/Under record in their previous 10 meetings is 5-4-1 to the Over, and I think today’s clash will end Over the game total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Pirates odds
Cubs vs Pirates live odds
Cubs vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +135 | Pittsburgh -160
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-165) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Cubs vs Pirates trend
The Cubs are 17-11-0 to the Over across their last 30 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.
How to watch Cubs vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Thursday, 5-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, SportsNet Pittsburgh |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Colin Rea (1-0, 0.96 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (3-2, 2.39 ERA) |
Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries
Cubs vs Pirates weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
