Cubs vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Darvish Keeps Dealing

Chicago smacked San Diego last night, but they'll have to deal with ace this afternoon — one who knows them very well. Find out if Yu Darvish is what the Friars need to bounce back as we break down our Cubs vs. Padres picks and predictions.

Zachary Cohen
Posted: Jun 9, 2021 8:15 AM ET Updated: Jun 9, 2021 1:50 PM ET Est Time: 3 min
Cubs vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Darvish Keeps Dealing
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The San Diego Padres will be looking to avenge Tuesday’s loss when they host the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park in San Diego, California on Wednesday, June 9. This game will start at 4:10 p.m. ET, so you don’t have much time to decide who you want to back. With that said, keep reading our Cubs vs. Padres picks and predictions in order to get a better look at this one. 

Cubs vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Wednesday, June 9, 2021
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: BSSD

Cubs vs Padres odds

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

With Yu Darvish on the bump this afternoon, San Diego opened as -205 chalk Tuesday night at FanDuel and is up to -260 at 1:45 p.m. ET. The Padres are attracting 79 percent of moneyline bets and 92 percent of moneyline cash. The total moved from 8 to 7.5 a couple of times and is now 8 (Under -115), with 58 percent of tickets and money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Cubs vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jake Arrieta (5-6, 5.26 ERA): Arrieta has been a disaster on the road this year, as he is 3-3 with a 7.24 ERA in six away starts. The righty is also coming off a game in which he allowed six earned runs in just two innings of work against the San Francisco Giants. Chicago desperately needs him to be somewhat serviceable in order to hang in there against this Padres team. 

Yu Darvish (6-1, 2.25 ERA): Darvish has been everything the Padres wanted him to be when they acquired him during the offseason. The righty has been consistently excellent all year long, and his 2.20 ERA at Petco Park suggests that San Diego is in a good spot with him out there in this one. It is, however, worth noting that Darvish pitched for the Cubs for the last three seasons. It’ll be interesting to see if that helps him navigate his way through this lineup, as it could mean that Chicago’s hitters know what he likes to do.  

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cubs: SS Javier Baez (questionable), OF Joc Pederson (questionable), 2B David Bote (out)
Padres: C Austin Nola (out), OF Trent Grisham (out), RP Drew Pomeranz (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 16-5 in their last 21 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres.

Moneyline pick

Anthony Rizzo drove in four runs in Chicago’s 7-1 win over San Diego last night, but the Cubs will likely have a much harder time getting to Darvish in this game. Chicago’s lineup is a collective 10 for 46 with no home runs off Darvish, and the righty also happens to be dealing this season. And if that’s not enough, Darvish should also know exactly what these Cubs hitters like to do at the plate, as he has to be at least somewhat familiar with their approach from the three years he spent in Chicago before heading to San Diego. 

As for Arrieta, things just aren’t going all that well this year. His 5.26 ERA this season puts him on pace to have his highest mark since getting away from Baltimore in 2013. The righty just doesn’t have the stuff anymore, and he is at his worst on the road. This matchup also presents a real challenge for him, as Wil Myers and Tommy Pham are a combined 10 for 23 with three doubles, two homers and five RBI against him. And San Diego then has guys like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Eric Hosmer, who are capable of hitting anyone. 

If you don’t want to lay the juice on San Diego, that’s understandable. But the Padres are a team worth throwing into parlays, and they are also a good bet to cover the -1.5 run line. 

PREDICTION: Padres ML (-225)

Over/Under pick

Arrieta’s starts have surprisingly stayed below the 7.5-mark in nine of his 11 appearances, but at some point, that is bound to change. Chicago’s opponents are averaging 5.0 runs per game in Arrieta’s six road starts this season, and this San Diego offense is better than most. The Padres also have some guys that have given Arrieta issues in the past, so it wouldn’t be that surprising if San Diego can score at least five or six here. 

For as good as Darvish has been, the righty has also allowed seven earned runs over his past three games. That means he’s certainly capable of giving up a few, especially to a Cubs team that was hot just last night. San Diego should still take care of business, but the Over just seems like the right play. 

PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-118) 

Cubs vs Padres betting card

  • Padres ML (-225)
  • Over 7.5 (-118) 

Picks made on 6/9/2021 at 1:40 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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