Cubs vs Orioles Picks and Predictions: Stroman Leads Chicago to Victory

In yesterday's matchup, Baltimore uncharacteristically plowed three homers into the stands in the path to victory. Will those bats stay hot or will Stroman cool them down? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Orioles.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
Jun 8, 2022 • 16:40 ET • 4 min read
Marcus Stroman Chicago Cubs MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles will wrap up a quick two-game set Wednesday at Camden Yards as the visitors will throw Marcus Stroman against home side starter Jordan Lyles. Baltimore took the opener, 9-3, in a rain-soaked homer fest last night.

Can the O’s continue to swing a hot bat after launching five homers last night, or is this normally-cold offense ready to return to its unproductive ways? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Orioles. 

Cubs vs Orioles odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Cubs opened as -125 moneyline favorites and moved as much as -135 before dropping back down to their opening price of -125. In yesterday’s opener, the game opened as a pick ‘em before the visitors closed as slight -115 favorites. 

The total opened at 8.5 is starting to shade to the Over. Last night, the total opened at 9 and closed at 8.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Orioles predictions

Picks made on 6/08/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Cubs vs Orioles game info

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Date: Wednesday, June 8, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Cubs vs Orioles betting preview

Starting pitchers

Marcus Stroman (2-5, 5.32 ERA): The height-doesn’t-measure-heart pitcher is coming off a horrendous start against the Cardinals, giving up nine earned runs, including three homers. Stroman entered that game with a respectable 3.95 ERA, so bettors shouldn’t overreact as Paul Goldschmidt and the Cards are raking lately. In his previous outing, the right-hander blanked the White Sox over seven strong innings.

Despite Stroman providing some solid innings, the Cubs are 2-7 straight up over his nine starts this season. He has never been a high-velocity pitcher, but he does sit in the top-third in the league in chase rate and is striking out nearly a batter per inning.

Jordan Lyles (3-4, 4.50 ERA): Lyles might have a decent 4.50 ERA, but his 1.48 WHIP indicates that he might be pitching above expectations right now. Over his last three starts, the right-hander has allowed 12 runs over 16 innings. Lyles gives up a ton of hits and owns a H/9 that is one of the highest in the league at 10.6 H/9.

The Orioles are 4-7 SU in Lyles’ 11 starts this season. He is hitting 92 mph with his fastball while batters are hitting over .285 vs. each of his four offerings on the season.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cubs: Jonathan Villar SS (Questionable), Seiya Suzuki OF (Out), David Bote 3B (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out).
Orioles: Chris Owings SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Orioles are 0-4 SU in Lyles' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Orioles

Cubs vs Orioles picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Orioles launched a five pack of long balls last night to take the first of a two-game series with the visiting Cubs. Neither starter had a great night, as 10 total runs were scored in the first five innings of the contest.

Baltimore had five separate players go deep — three off Chicago starter Keegan Thompson — but is a repeat performance on deck for the series finale?

Marcus Stroman will get the ball for the Cubbies and the right-hander is coming off an absolute dud of a performance in his last outing. The veteran hurler gave up nine runs on 10 hits (three homers), but is also coming off a four-start May where he posted a 1.50 ERA, and didn’t allow more than two earned runs in any of those outings.

The Stro-show was looking good before that last start vs. the Cardinals, and a bounce-back spot in a park the former Blue Jay is familiar with could be in the cards tonight.

Stroman is likely the reason the Cubs are the favorites, one night after closing as -115 faves. Despite the muscle flex last night, the Orioles are one of the worst offenses in baseball. Baltimore is just one of seven teams in the league who are averaging under 4.00 runs per game on the season, and came into last night hitting just .229 — good for fifth-worst in baseball. 

The Chicago offense is no powerhouse by any means, but it should be able to take a couple of runs off of Jordan Lyles who, despite a 450 ERA, is one of the most hard-hit pitchers in baseball.

Lyles has allowed 18 hits over his last two starts (9 1-3 innings) and should have a higher ERA than he currently sports. He sits in the bottom-third in most expected metrics (xERA, xSLG, xwOBA…etc) and only four other starters in baseball allow more hits per nine innings than the right-hander. 

The Orioles are 4-7 SU when Lyles toes the rubber and more recently, 1-5 SU over his last six starts. The Cubs should be able to get some runs early and avoid the Baltimore bullpen that sits near the top of the league and is well-rested.

The Chicago bullpen is no slouch either and is more than capable of holding a lead if and when Stroman hands the ball over. The big arms in Chicago's pen were not used last night so there is a fresh stable of arms for David Ross to choose from. Only the Braves have a higher K/9 than this bullpen on the season.  

We were on the Cubs last night and that didn’t work, but we think Stroman can keep this offense in check, and think last night’s power surge was more of an outlier than a trend for a Baltimore offense that is scoring 3.96 runs per game.

PredictionCubs moneyline (-125 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

The Orioles flexed some muscle last night with five home runs from five different batters, but the total has moved to 9 after closing at 8.5 last game. Although we think Lyles will get hit around tonight, both managers have good bullpens they can turn to. If we can avoid a start like Game 1, runs should be tough in the later innings which should keep this total down.

Stroman got rocked in his last start but should bounce back today. He posted a solid four-start May with a sub-2.00 ERA, and is comfortable pitching in Camden Yards during his time with the Blue Jays. Before his rough outing in his last turn, Stroman had allowed two or fewer earned runs in five straight, and now faces an offense that struggles to string together hits with a .229 batting average on the season.

Lyles will likely get touched, but if the O’s go to their rested bullpen early, the later innings could go by quickly. Baltimore’s strengths lie within its relievers as it has the fifth-best ERA in baseball while its three best arms all have a sub-2.00 ERA.

Rain is in the forecast, but the boys played through it last night and once the wet stuff came, the scoring slowed down as just two runs were scored after the fifth inning. The winds will also be lighter than yesterday so we should certainly see fewer long balls.

With both bullpens having plenty of rest after a day off Monday and a lopsided win, we could actually see the best arms get a workout even if tonight isn’t a close game, which should also favor the Under.

Stroman is in a bounce-back spot and faces an offense that isn’t threatening despite a big output last night. Lyles is pushing this total up but Stroman and both bullpens should keep this game in check.

PredictionUnder 9 (-120 at Caesars)

Best bet

The Cubs didn't get to Kyle Bradish last night, but tonight is another chance vs. one of the easiest pitchers to hit in baseball. Jordan Lyles has one of the league’s worst H/9 and has been riding some luck when it comes to his 4.50 ERA that Fangraphs has at 5.10 xERA. 

The middle of the Chicago order is hot and could easily hit the Over 2.5 earned runs themselves. Wilson Contreras is hitting in the two-spot and is slashing .346/.485/.769 with three home runs over his last seven games. The Cubs’ offense should ambush Lyles and Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde has no issues leaving him out there, as the starter has thrown more than 100 pitches in three of his last six starts.

Lyles’ Over 2.5 earned runs is as low as -165 but Caesars is still posting a bettor-friendly price of -147.

PickLyles Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-147)

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