Cubs vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Hendricks in Trouble in Milwaukee

An NL Central clash in Milwaukee continues today, with Chicago trying to rebound from a series-opening loss. The Cubs face an uphill challenge with Kyle Hendricks on the mound — and our MLB betting picks expect the Brewers to punish him.

Last Updated: Jul 5, 2022 1:09 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Rowdy Tellez Milwaukee Brewers MLB
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The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers face off in an NL Central showdown on Tuesday night. This is the second contest in a three-game set at American Family Field.

The Brewers beat the Cubs 5-2 last night and oddsmakers expect them to win again, with MLB betting lines opening with Milwaukee as a -134 home favorite for tonight's showdown.

Here are our best free Cubs vs. Brewers MLB picks and predictions for July 5.

Cubs vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Brewers at -130 and the Over/Under at 8.5. Early money has come in on the Over, shifting the total to 9 at some books with others still dealing at 8.5 and juiced towards the Over. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Brewers predictions

Picks made on 7/5/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Cubs vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Tuesday, July 5, 2022
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: MARQ, Bally Sports

Cubs vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kyle Hendricks (4-6, 4.76 ERA): The veteran right-hander has struggled in each of the last two years, pitching to an almost identical 4.77 ERA in 2021. In 15 starts this year Hendricks has a 1.29 WHIP and .263 OBA. In his previous outing, last Thursday, he allowed six hits and two runs in six innings vs. the Reds.

Jason Alexander (2-0, 3.82 ERA): The 29-year-old rookie earned a spot on the Brewers when Brandon Woodruff was sidelined and looks to stick around at the back of the rotation with Adrian Houser now on the IL. In his last outing, Alexander surrendered three hits and two runs in two innings of relief work against the Pirates last Thursday. Alexander is a ground ball pitcher who relies on his sinker and slider to try and force soft contact.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Betting trend to know

The Over is 9-2-1 in the Brewers' last 12 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers

Cubs vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Brewers sit atop the NL Central with a 47-35 record and beat the Cubs in extra innings last night, thanks to a Victor Caratini walk-off home run in the 10th inning. The Cubs are 32-48 on the year and have gone just 3-10 in their previous 13 contests on the road. 

After a slow start to the season, both of these teams have been hitting the ball much better lately. Milwaukee is ninth in the majors with a .731 OPS, with that number bumping up to .782 over the last 30 days. The Cubs are 13th in OPS (.726) with that number moving to .739 over the last 30 days. 

The batting edge for the Brewers should be a big factor, since the starters for both sides are major question marks. 

Milwaukee's Jason Alexander is a career journeyman with a relatively small sample size to draw on. He's a ground ball pitcher that has been getting hit a lot harder than he should, and his expected ERA of 6.00 is cause for alarm. 

The Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks and his 4.76 ERA to the mound. In seven starts against the Brewers over the last two seasons, Hendricks has pitched to an ugly 6.89 ERA with a 1.75 WHIP.

The Brewers also have the better bullpen, with their relief pitchers ranking among the Top-10 teams in the majors in ERA (3.48) and OBA (.221). Meanwhile, Cubs relievers are just 26th with an ERA of 4.49 while ranking 23rd in OBA (.249).

I don't trust either starter but the Brewers have the superior lineup and bullpen, and have home-field advantage. I'll gladly put my money on them at -130.

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-128 at SportsInteraction)

Over/Under analysis

Both teams have been crushing the ball lately, with the Brewers leading the majors in OPS (.846) and averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. Over that same span, the Cubs are fourth with an OPS of .814 while plating 5.62 runs/game.

Add in a pair of volatile starters and this total of 8.5 looks too low. 

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-118 at 888 Sport)

Best bet

Not only has Hendricks struggled this year, but he's been getting hit hard on his four-seamers and sinkers — both offerings that Brewers hitters have been feasting on.

With Hendricks playing poorly, the Cubs bullpen looking extremely inconsistent, and the Brewers raking, I'm taking the Over 4.5 on Milwaukee's team total. 

Pick: Brewers team total Over 4.5 (-110 at bet365)

MLB parlays

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