Cubs vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: All Signs Point to Under

Coming into this matchup, both teams have been struggling to put runs on the board. After pulling off an upset last night, look for Chicago to repeat that success. We explain why in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Brewers.

Last Updated: Aug 27, 2022 11:21 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Drew Smyly Chicago Cubs MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to stay afloat in the NL Central race when they host the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field on Saturday night.

Milwaukee is enjoying an 11-game lead over Chicago for second place in the division, but you wouldn’t know it from recent play. The Brew Crew are 8-14 in August, while the Cubbies are 14-8, including Friday’s 4-3 Chicago victory.

Can Milwaukee stay within shouting distance of the St. Louis Cardinals with a win? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs Brewers on Saturday, August 27.

Cubs vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Brewers have taken action since opening as consensus -182 favorites, and are now listed at anywhere from -189 to -205. The initial total of 7.0 has been bet up heavily, with most books going to 7.5, and some even raising the line to 8.0 as of Saturday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Brewers predictions

Picks made on 8/27/2022 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Cubs vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Saturday, August 27, 2022
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: MARQUEE, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Cubs vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Drew Smyly (5-7, 3.47 ERA): The streaky Drew Smyly is on a roll right now, as he’s authored a 1.13 ERA through four starts this month. He held a soaring Cardinals squad to one run over seven innings last Monday. Things were going swimmingly for Smyly in his most recent meeting with Milwaukee on May 30 — as he tossed three no-hit innings — but he exited early due to an oblique injury that had him on the shelf for about six weeks. 

Brandon Woodruff (9-3, 3.51 ERA): Brandon Woodruff hasn’t pitched very deep into games of late, yet it’s hard to knock his form. Woodruff is averaging 5.9 innings per start over his last 10 outings, but owns a 2.59 ERA in that sample. He held the Cubs to two runs over 5 2-3 innings when last seen on Sunday.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 3-12 in their last 15 games against NL Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers

Cubs vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The struggling Brewers are offering no value whatsoever on the moneyline, so bettors should back the Cubs in this spot.

Milwaukee is batting .199 as a team in August — tied for the worst mark in the majors alongside the Miami Marlins. Opposing a lefty in Drew Smyly probably won’t help the Brew Crew snap out of their funk, as they’re 29th in team batting average against southpaws this season at .214.

Smyly’s opposite number will be Brandon Woodruff — and while his 3.38 ERA in August is solid — it hardly means he’s invulnerable. Seiya Suzuki is a perfect 3-for-3 in his career against Woodruff, and has been the Cubs’ hottest hitter over the last week, batting .308. 

Woodruff will also have to watch out for Ian Happ, who has three homers and seven RBI over the last seven days. That includes his two taters that accounted for the Cubs’ only four runs in Friday night’s victory. Happ has gone deep twice against this hurler in 26 prior encounters. 

The bullpens are comparable by ERA over the last two weeks, with the Cubs checking in 14th at 4.07, and the Brewers in 15th with a 4.11 ERA. However, Chicago owns by far the better strand rate at 74%, while Milwaukee is at 60.7%. Back the underdogs tonight.

Prediction: Cubs moneyline (+175 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

With two competent starters on the bump and two bullpens that are at more or less full strength, these offenses should fail to exceed the total on Saturday night. 

Woodruff held the Cubs to two runs over 5 2-3 innings when he faced this team on Sunday. He owns intimidating numbers against some of Chicago’s best hitters, such as Willson Contreras (2-for-14) and Nico Hoerner (1-for-11). 

The Cubs haven’t hit well as a team over the last week, batting .174, and Christopher Morel’s .182 mark with no RBI in that span stands out. 

Devin Williams (1.88 ERA) served up a longball to Happ on Friday, but don’t expect lightning to strike twice if he’s called upon again. Brad Boxberger — who’s worked eight shutout innings in August — should help build the bridge to the Brewers’ closer.

Smyly takes on a Brewers lineup that’s batting .180 over the last seven days. Andrew McCutchen, Rowdy Tellez, and Luis Urias are a combined 6-for-61 (.098) in that stretch. 

Erich Uelmen and Mark Leiter Jr. have risen in the bullpen pecking order for Chicago since the start of August, with the pair combining for six holds and a save. Look for either or both to make another appearance after pitching cleanly on Friday. 

Prediction: Under 8 (-120 at DraftKings)

Best bet

The respective relief corps should be able to keep the clamps on the opposing offenses, but it’s much too tempting to jump on a generous first five innings total.

Smyly and Woodruff have fairly easy assignments on the bump in Milwaukee this Saturday night. Neither offense is in good form at present, and neither has excelled at plating runs early in games — the Cubs are 11th (2.54) while the Brewers are 16th (2.46).

A first-half line of 4.5 on a game with a total of 7.5 is rare to see without a steep price tag. But this one is reasonable. 

Pick: First five innings Under 4.5 (-148 at Unibet)

MLB parlays

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