Things continue to go from bad to worse for the St. Louis Cardinals, who have now dropped six straight games after a loss to the Mets on Friday night. New York had struggled prior to the series and still represents a chance for the visitors to get right, but will they take advantage?
Let’s break down Cardinals vs. Mets in our MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, June 17.
Cardinals vs Mets odds
Cardinals vs Mets predictions
In theory, this should be a pretty great matchup for Adam Wainwright. His ground ball rate has sunk to 37.1% this season, and that’s led to a sour .318 expected batting average. He simply hasn’t been able to pitch to contact like he has throughout his career, and on top of that, his strikeout rate stands at just 12%, which is unseasonably low. That puts him in the bottom 3% of all pitchers.
The Mets are a team that makes plenty of contact, even when it’s not very good. They’re 10th in ground ball rate this year but just 20th in barrel rate, illustrating that they’re not only making weaker contact but not putting it in the air.
Lately, though, things have gone much differently for the Mets. They’re among the Bottom 5 in ground ball rate over the last 14 days and striking out like crazy at a 25.2% clip. That’s simply not like the Mets, and it’s probably why they’ve lost so much lately.
Anyway, there’s no threat of the swing and miss here with Wainwright on the hill, and with New York trying to get the ball in the air more, I think this should work out in their favor with a strong Kodai Senga on the hill.
My best bet: Mets moneyline (-157 at BetRivers)
Cardinals vs Mets same-game parlay
Mets ML
TPham 2+ Total Bases
Senga 6+ Strikeouts
While I’m not always the biggest believer in batter versus pitcher stats, I will point out that Tommy Pham has a wealth of knowledge about Wainwright. They were former teammates in St. Louis and since then, the outfielder has had plenty of success against the veteran. Pham is 7-for-16 in his career against the righty with two doubles and a homer.
I like Pham in general, but the Wainwright history makes this a sweeter bet. Pham has seven hits in his last five games and in the last 10 has hit .324 with five doubles and three homers. Extra base hits have kind of been his thing, and he’s had a double in five of the last seven.
I think his total bases should be fairly safe. I also think Kodai Senga is in a great spot considering the Cardinals’ strikeout rate in the last couple weeks is nearly 25%. Excluding his 2 2/3 inning-start against the Blue Jays, Senga has struck out at least six in his last five starts.
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Cardinals vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
We haven’t really talked much about Senga, so I’ll use this section as a way to express my trust in him. He’s certainly earned my respect, with a 2.79 ERA in May, matching that in June, and he comes in off of one of his best career outings where he shut out the Pirates over seven frames. He did walk four there, and he’s now walked nine in his last two starts, but in terms of pitching to contact, he’s been great.
The Cardinals’ walk rate in the last two weeks sits at just 7.3%, so even though they’ve done that a lot this season I think their recent rut as an offense has a little bit to do with their approach.
With that, I think the Under is where I’d lean. I will point out that there’s been some action on that bet, with the Under 9 opening up at MLB odds of -105 and currently sitting at -110 or steeper. A low 44% of the tickets wagered on the total here are on the Under, however, and just 29% of the handle.
The Mets have accounted for 80% of the bets on the moneyline and 83% of the total handle.
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Trend to know
Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mets
Cardinals vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, June 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSMW, WPIX |
Starting pitchers
Adam Wainwright (2-1, 5.79 ERA): The 41-year-old has been unspectacular over the last few starts, but he’s been steady. Uncle Charlie hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in his last three outings, though he’s yet to complete six frames in a start.
Kodai Senga (6-3, 3.34 ERA): Senga’s aforementioned issues with walks have been his one Achilles heel, putting him in the Bottom 6% of all pitchers in the category. He’s compiled a 2.28 ERA in his last five starts, dating back to mid-May.
