Take a deep breath and bet on Jake Woodford.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have successfully grabbed this three-game series from the St. Louis Cardinals in L.A. and will be out for the sweep on Sunday.
That could be a tough ask with the embattled Noah Syndergaard on the hill, but with a struggling starter on the other side might there be a way in for the favorites?
Let’s break down Cardinals vs. Dodgers in our MLB picks and predictions.
Cardinals vs Dodgers odds
Cardinals vs Dodgers predictions
The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been relatively quiet of late with just 11 runs in the last four games, seven of which came in the first of this three-game set. With that being said, things could turn around here for L.A.
Why? Because Jake Woodford is getting the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals. The right-hander was an effective reliever last year and posted a 3.14 ERA at Triple-A, but he’s yet to figure it out at the big-league level.
Woodford’s 5.47 ERA is made worse by his 7.11 xERA, which indicates he’s been even worse than we’ve witnessed. His 14.3% barrel rate is quite alarming, considering he only strikes out 14.7% of the batters he faces.
Now that I’ve relayed the bad numbers, let me give you some hope here to believe in Woodford. His ground ball rate is close to 55%, and his sinker carries a .285 expected batting average against a .304 real-life batting average against.
He’s giving up a lot of contact by design, and while there have been an alarming number of hard-hit balls there’s at least some method to the madness.
We’ll talk about the other pitcher here in a second, but with one of the best offenses in baseball to this point, I think Woodford can pull this one out for St. Louis.
My best bet: Cardinals moneyline (+125 at bet365)
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Cardinals vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
Noah Syndergaard has been pretty similar to Woodford, only so much worse. The Dodgers have tried to make him a sinkerballer but it’s failed to this point. He allowed seven earned runs last time out and his ERA now stands at 6.58 on the season.
Syndergaard’s barrel rate may be lower at 9.2%, but his ground ball rate is an incredibly short 39.1%. If you are going to try and get outs via contact, you’re going to need to induce many more grounders.
He's kept walks and hard-hit balls at a minimum, but against a team as good as the Cardinals you’re not going to be able to give up this many balls in the air and live to tell the tale.
L.A. has just a 74 wRC+ over the last week, which ranks 24th in the league, and has struck out in an uncharacteristic 27.5% of its at-bats. It seems the injury to JD Martinez did this team no favors, and it’s really struggled at the dish.
Cardinals vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
It’d definitely seem that the Under is the play here, if you want to play either side of this total.
St. Louis’ bullpen has been excellent with a league-leading 3.24 xFIP, which is much more becoming of this unit than the 3.87 ERA which would put it middle of the pack in the league.
On the other side of things, L.A. is starting to come around and has returned its two best relievers – Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips – from the paternity list.
Woodford did have good numbers as a reliever last year in the big leagues and he also managed to pitch effectively in the Triple-A rotation last year. The Cardinals have been slumping over the last week and there's a recipe here for both teams to come in well Under expectations.
Cardinals vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, April 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSMW, SNLA |
Cardinals vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jake Woodford (1-2, 5.47 ERA): The right-hander owned a 3.14 ERA in Triple-A last year in 11 appearances, 10 of which were starts. At the big-league level, he was brilliant in 48 1/3 innings with a 2.23 ERA. This season’s gotten off to a rocky start, but there should be enough of a base for Woodford to build upon.
Noah Syndergaard (0-3, 6.58 ERA): Syndergaard’s last start was his worst of the season; he surrendered seven earned runs on nine hits over four frames with just two strikeouts. He’s now allowed five home runs in five starts.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ last seven after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers
