The Cardinals and Dodgers will both send some post-hype prospects to the mound on Friday night in the first of an exciting three-game set in Los Angeles. While the home side might have the better of the two starters, it sure doesn’t have the better offense. What does that mean for this one?
Let’s break down the Friday, April 28 Cardinals vs. Dodgers matchup in our MLB picks and predictions.
Cardinals vs Dodgers odds
Cardinals vs Dodgers predictions
It’s starting to come together for Jack Flaherty. After battling injuries for several years and getting off to a rocky start in 2023, the righty turned in arguably his best start of the season five days ago against the Mariners, striking out nine and recording a quality start.
Flaherty walked 13 batters in his first two starts of the season, which took him across 10 innings, but in his last 17 1/3 frames he’s issued just six free passes. While it’s still too many walks, Flaherty is still heading in the right direction. He’s also given up a home run in each of his last three starts, but his .228 expected batting average would indicate he’s not in danger of batters consistently reaching via contact.
On the other side of this one, Dustin May also seems to be trending in the right direction. Six strikeouts in his last outing marked a season-high, and his expected ERA is now down to 3.81. While he’s been good, though, he hasn’t kept the ball on the ground nearly enough and his .237 xBA checks in higher than Flaherty’s.
At best, this is a pick ‘em. I’m a big fan of this Cardinals offense, which ranks third in wRC+, eight spots higher than the Dodgers. I’d take advantage of the plus money on the better offense with a comparable pitcher, if I were you.
My best bet: Cardinals moneyline (+120 at BetMGM)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB same-game parlay at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Cardinals vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
As I touched on above, I wouldn’t necessarily even make the Dodgers a favorite here. They do have, on paper, the more competent of the two pitchers. They also have a bullpen that’s struggled to this point, and which is without arguably its best reliever with Brusdar Graterol, on the paternity list.
L.A.’s offense lacks a punch, and even if it’s been fantastic over the years in reaching via the walk, I have some serious concerns with the way Flaherty has been able to limit the damage despite all the contact he’s surrendered. Things are trending his way, and should he come out and have his best start of the season, it’s not going to be enough.
With this, I’m surprised to see 78% of the tickets on the Dodgers here, though just 71% of the money is headed that way.
Cardinals vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams are in the Top 11 in wRC+ this year, and both pitchers have had their issues. That’s what makes betting on this total a very scary proposition. I think both of these guys could have a good, old-fashioned pitcher’s duel, but I could just as easily see Flaherty and May giving up three runs apiece.
That’s why I’m opting to stay away from the total here, though if I had to lean one way, it’d be towards the Over. I simply have no faith in this L.A. bullpen at the moment, which is leaning on Shelby Miller late in games.
Over at DraftKings, 73% of the tickets have come in on Over 8.5, with 79% of the money there as well. It seems everyone is aligned on a high-scoring game.
Cardinals vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, April 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AppleTV+ |
Cardinals vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jack Flaherty (2-2, 3.29 ERA): The 27-year-old turned in his first quality start of the season last Sunday, allowing three earned over six frames against the Mariners. His nine strikeouts marked a season-high, and to this point he’s yet to allow more than five hits in a start.
Dustin May (3-1, 3.07 ERA): Still just 25, expectations remain high for the flamethrower. He successfully made it through six innings in his first two starts of the season, but has yet to do that in his last three. May allowed a season-worst five earned two turns ago, and last time out against Chicago settled back in with two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings with six punchouts.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last five vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers
