The MLB betting board for Monday has just five games, including an NL Central matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs.
The Brewers have a five-game lead atop the division while the Cubs are in fourth place and in full-on rebuilding mode. The Brewers are -199 favorites for the first contest in this four-game series taking place at Wrigley Field.
Here are our best free Cubs vs. Brewers picks and predictions for August 9, with the first pitch at 8:05 p.m. ET.
Brewers vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Monday, August 9, 2021
• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, Bally Sports Network
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Brewers vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Freddy Peralta (8-3, 2.21 ERA): The 25-year-old is putting together a terrific season for Milwaukee, pitching to a 0.89 WHIP with an incredible opponent batting average of .136 in 20 starts this season. In his last outing, he held the Pirates to two runs over six innings — making it 13 of his last 14 starts where he has allowed two runs or fewer.
Alec Mills (5-4, 4.41 ERA): Like the rest of the Cubs, Mills is going through a tough year in posting a 1.44 WHIP with an OBA of .285 through 69 1-3 innings. That said, the right-hander has looked better as a starter than when he comes out of the bullpen and he's fresh off a strong start at Coors Field, when he allowed two runs in a 3-2 Chicago victory.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Brewers: Travis Shaw 3B (Out), Daniel Vogelbach 1B (Out).
Cubs: Jason Heyward RF (Out), Nico Hoerner SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Brewers are 23-8 in their last 31 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs.
Run line pick
There was a time not so long ago that you would always consider backing Chicago at home... but the Cubs have lost six in a row at Wrigley and are in complete rebuild mode. This team is nine games below .500 and recently traded away three of their best hitters in Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo.
Chicago has struggled at the plate this season, ranking just 22nd in the majors with an OPS of .698, and it will be even worse without those three veteran sluggers in the lineup. The Brewers haven't been great at the dish either but they have performed much better lately, posting a solid OPS of .739 over the last 30 days.
The key to the Brewers 66-46 record this season has been the outstanding play of their rotation, including tonight's starter Freddy Peralta. The fireballer has fanned 154 batters in 114 innings this season and has already set an MLB record for most starts in a season with two or fewer hits allowed (12).
The Cubs are countering with 29-year-old Alec Mills who has a pedestrian 4.41 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season.
Chicago is just 10-28 in its last 38 games and clearly has its eyes on the future while the Brewers have sizzled on the road, going 23-8 in their previous 31 away contests. Don't overthink this one and grab Milwaukee on the run line.
PREDICTION: Milwaukee -1.5 (-126)
Over/Under pick
The Brewers entered the All-Star break ranking a modest 17th in the majors in averaging 4.28 runs per game. However, they've been on fire since, plating 5.6 runs per game over their last 20 contests.
Mills has been less than reliable this season and could be in trouble against a red-hot Brewers lineup, especially with an 11 mph wind blowing out towards centerfield at Wrigley today.
We mentioned that the Cubs traded away three productive batters but it's also worth mentioning that they also jettisoned three of their top relievers from a bullpen that had been among the best in the majors. Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin had pitched to a combined 0.78 WHIP in 119 1-3 innings and their absence will likely be felt towards the end of games.
With the Over going 6-1-2 in the Brewers' last nine games on the road, and the Cubs going 5-1-1 O/U in their previous seven contests at home, back the Over tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-114)
Brewers vs Cubs betting card
- Milwaukee -1.5 (-126)
- Over 9 (-114)
Picks made on 8/09/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET
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