The Boston Red Sox host the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park tonight.
Although Boston's offense struggled on Friday, my Braves vs. Red Sox predictions are betting on a bounce-back performance from the BoSox and slugger Alex Bregman.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this interleague clash on Saturday, May 17.
Braves vs Red Sox prediction
My Braves vs Red Sox best bet: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (-120 at bet365)
It looks like Alex Bregman simply needed a change of scenery to rediscover his Silver Slugger form with the Astros from 2018 and 2019.
The hard-hitting third baseman ranks fourth in the majors in total bases (103) while leading the Boston Red Sox in batting average (.309) and slugging percentage (.579). Bregman has been especially hot over the last month, slashing .333/.431/.676.
Grant Holmes, who owns a 5.18 FIP, takes to the hill for the Atlanta Braves tonight. Holmes has an expected ERA of 4.59, and his average exit velocity and barrel rate sit in the bottom 20th percentile.
Bregman has excellent reverse platoon splits, slugging .600 against righties like Holmes. There's also 10 mph winds blowing towards the left field fence, so I expect him to continue to mash at Fenway.
Braves vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Alex Bregman 2+ total bases
Red Sox team total Over 3.5
Lucas Giolito Over 15.5 outs
The Red Sox lead the majors in hard-hit rate while ranking second in exit velocity and barrel rate. They plate 5.19 runs per game at home and should have success against Holmes.
Lucas Giolito missed all of last year while recovering from UCL surgery, and in three starts this season, he's posted a 5.51 ERA. He struggled in his first two starts but looked sharp in his last outing, holding the Royals to two hits and one run across 6 2/3 innings.
The Braves bat just .216 with an OPS of .648 on the road, so back Giolito to eclipse the Over 15.5 outs prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Red Sox odds
Braves vs Red Sox live odds
Braves vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +100 | Boston -120
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-205) | Boston -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Braves vs Red Sox trend
Boston has covered the F5 run line in 20 of its last 28 games (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Braves vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts |
| Date | Saturday, 5-17-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Braves starting pitcher | Grant Holmes (2-3, 4.14 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Lucas Giolito (1-1, 5.51 ERA) |
Braves vs Red Sox latest injuries
Braves vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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