The Atlanta Braves are hoping the rain can cool off the red-hot Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to their ace in Game 2 of today's doubleheader.
But it might take more than bumping his start back a day to slow down Wheeler, who hasn’t allowed a run in almost a month, and my Braves vs. Phillies predictions suggest he'll keep rolling with a player prop.
That and more MLB picks for this NL East rivalry, with first pitch set for 6:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 29, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
Braves vs Phillies prediction
My Braves vs Phillies best bet: Zack Wheeler 8+ strikeouts (+162 at FanDuel)
Zack Wheeler has been great for a while, but the run he's currently on could be some of his best work ever.
The Philadelphia Phillies ace has thrown 22 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. He’s allowed just three hits in each of his last three starts and has struck out 22 batters during those three starts.
Most know this, but Wheeler’s success is no fluke. His current run has lowered his expected ERA to 2.14, which sits in the 99th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also ranks in the 95th percentile in expected batting average and the 93rd in strikeout rate.
Tonight, he faces an Atlanta Braves team that isn’t used to struggling the way it has this season, sitting third in the division and three games under .500 at 25-28.
Atlanta's bats have been inconsistent this season, and Tuesday’s 2-0 loss was a perfect example. Atlanta struck out 11 times while collecting just five hits and leaving 18 runners on base. They enter this game ranked 12th in OPS and 16th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching this season.
Still, it’s not like Wheeler needs their help. Even though arguably his worst start of the season came against the Braves back on April 8, he has a great track record against this lineup overall.
Current Braves batters have combined for a .216 xBA and a .392 xSLG over a whopping 305 plate appearances vs. Wheeler. He also has a strikeout rate of nearly 30% against this lineup, and that’s what I’m going to focus on.
Atlanta is a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to strikeouts this season. The team has the 13th-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitchers this season, but when things aren’t going right, there's a lot of swing-and-miss in this lineup.
Wheeler has a strikeout prop sitting at 6.5, a number he’s eclipsed in all but two starts this season. Considering the Over is heavily juiced, give me his alternate strikeouts of 8+ at +162, a prop he's hit in seven of his 11 starts this season.
The right-hander struck out seven Braves in that April 8 meeting, and he didn’t even have his good stuff then. Atlanta's inconsistent bats will bite them as Wheeler racks up the Ks.
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Zack Wheeler 8+ strikeouts
Braves team total Under 3.5
Trea Turner Over 1.5 total bases
Not many Braves hitters are looking forward to this matchup with Wheeler.
Sean Murphy, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies all have xBA's of .217 or lower vs. Wheeler. On top of that, Murphy, Ozuna, Harris, Olson, and Austin Riley all have strikeout rates of 29.7% or higher.
Each of Wheeler's last three opponents has scored three runs or fewer, and the Braves have scored three or fewer in three of their last four games overall. Add their team total Under 3.5 to this same-game parlay.
Meanwhile, Phillies shortstop Trea Turner has been raking in May, hitting .348 with a .908 OPS over 23 games this month. Turner has gone Over 1.5 total bases 13 times this month and in five of his last eight games overall.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies live odds
Braves vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +145 | Philadelphia -170
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-150) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Braves vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have cashed the moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games (+10.60 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Thursday, 5-29-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN - South, NBCS-Philadelphia |
| Braves starting pitcher | Chris Sale (2-3, 3.36 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (6-1, 2.42 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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