It was another 2-1 day for +1.67 units. Today, however, is only a five-game slate with three indoor matches.
There is a doubleheader to start the day and a couple of spots to look at in terms of pitcher markets. It's also nice to take a day off betting against the Rockies as those pitcher win markets were very sweaty at Wrigley.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers Thursday, May 29.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 29
Smith-Shawver o4.5 hits allowed (-125)
Lopez u4.5 hits allowed (+115)
Sanchez o1.5 walks allowed (-125)
Today's SP best bets
Braves vs. Phillies
The angle: Smith-Shawver's leash could be extended in Game 1
The move: AJ Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars)
I would play this to -135/-140 today as AJ Smith-Shawver is getting the ball for Game 1 of the doubleheader. His leash hasn’t been very long of late but he is on seven days of rest and could hit the high 90s today in pitches.
It’s a tough road game vs. the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves starter is coming off his worst start where he allowed eight hits and seven runs. He might have to eat some innings even if he continues to pitch poorly.
He allows about a hit per inning and getting five innings or more is quite possible. The extra rest, the doubleheader, and the matchup are all working in favor of his Overs.
Athletics vs. Jays
The angle: Lopez has a short leash and is facing a struggling offense
The move: Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 hits allowed (+115 at DraftKings)
The Toronto Blue Jays are awful at the plate. They have scored six runs over the last six games and the middle of the order is nonexistent. It’s a great spot to fade this offense and back Jacob Lopez and his low leash.
The Athletics' starter has a projected pitch count of 78 pitches. He was a reliever who transitioned to a starter and threw a season-high 91 pitches in his last outing where he threw seven frames and gave up one run on just three hits vs. the Phillies. He isn't a push over.
There are many paths to this Under and that includes a long start dominating a bad offense or a shorter start where his Unders are all in play.
Braves vs. Phillies
The angle: Longer leash in the opener of the doubleheader
The move: Cristopher Sanchez Over 1.5 walks allowed (-125 at DraftKings)
Let’s bet some more on volume in Game 1 of the doubleheader. Cristopher Sanchez will be pitching on an extra day of rest and could have a longer leash than normal while needing to save the bullpen for Game 2.
THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches and 1.7 walks allowed from the Philly starter today but there is a chance that he throws closer to 100 pitches this afternoon.
Sanchez has three or more walks in four of his last five games and has gone Over this number in 70% of his starts in 2025. The Braves are a better-than-average team in BB%, sitting at 9% on the season.
Maybe on a full slate day, this play doesn’t make the card, but on a five-game slate with a doubleheader, this is a buy for me to -135.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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