Aaron Judge had his moment, and now the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays meet for a pivotal Game 4 of the ALDS.
It looked like this one was over. Toronto had control, but a costly defensive lapse cracked the door open just enough for New York and its superstar to take advantage. Judge made them pay with a game-tying three-run homer off tonight’s opener, Louis Varland.
I break it all down in my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions and free MLB picks for Wednesday, October 8.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4 predictions
Who will win Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4
You could almost copy and paste what I wrote yesterday because it’s a nearly identical setup. The value once again lies with Toronto. Yankees starter Cam Schlittler hasn’t fared well against the Jays this season, but Jays manager John Schneider may have overextended his bullpen last night. That could be the difference.
Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet
Over 8.5 (-110)
This one isn’t easy to break down — bullpen games rarely are — but given the setup, it’s fair to expect another slugfest.
I’m confident New York Yankees breakout arm Cam Schlittler won’t repeat his Wild Card escapades. That doesn’t mean he can’t deliver a strong showing, but hitting double-digit strikeouts again, as he did against Boston, would be the biggest surprise of the series.
The Toronto Blue Jays' biggest strength is their contact ability; they simply don’t strike out, and if they win the World Series, this would be a huge reason why. It’s also why they’ve had success against Schlittler this season already.
Schlitter was shelled in his last start against Toronto, giving up four earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings during a 7–1 September loss. His prior outing was better, though still a mortal showing, with two earned over five innings.
The Yankees would probably take that line tonight, but Toronto's limited swing-and-miss could expose Schlittler's middling hard-hit and barrel rates against a lineup that has been absolute en fuego.
There’s some guesswork involved on the other side, as the Jays’ pitching plan could change from batter to batter. That said, I expect the Yankees to find success against Toronto’s bullpen, just as Jazz Chisholm Jr. noted in his own analysis last night
"It helps us a lot,” Chisholm said. “We’ve seen them all year a lot. Every game we’ve mostly faced them, we face three to four guys in their pen every game, and today, it was probably like five, six. It helps a lot to get them in the game, get their arms in there, get them working, because baseball is an everyday game, and it’s tiring. Get to see them, maybe tomorrow their stuff isn’t as good as it was in Game 1 and 2, and we go out there and do our thing."
Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4 same-game parlay (SGP)
If Schlittler is getting outs, I think it will come via in-play ground balls for all of the reasons I outlined above. While I projected around 4.7 strikeouts for him this evening, the plus-money price on the Under makes it worth a play in our same-game parlay.
I’ll pair it with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record a run. Are the Yankees going to start giving him the intentional walk treatment? I think it’s possible. Either way, there is tons of value in him crossing home plate yet again through a variety of ways given tonight's matchup.
Blue Jays vs Yankees SGP
- Over 8.5
- Cam Schlittler Under 4.5 strikeouts
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs
Blue Jays vs Yankees home run pick for Game 4
Aaron Judge (+250)
It’s been a joy to watch Aaron Judge and Guerrero go blow-for-blow in this series. Vlad has been unreal and easily the best player overall, but last night may have been the first time Judge outshone him. He’ll see a good amount of velocity tonight with some arms that have had barrel issues this season.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4 odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +155 | New York -185
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-140) | New York -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Yankees trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 132 games (+21.10 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Yankees and Game 4 info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, October 8, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Louis Varland (4-3, 2.97 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Yankees latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
