The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will play the second game of a three-game set under the afternoon sun at Yankee Stadium as Gerrit Cole looks to ride his hot start as a -180 favorite vs. a struggling Alek Manoah.
The Jays took the victory last night as a decent +120 dog, but facing the AL Cy Young frontrunner with a pitcher in Manoah who has allowed 15 runs and 15 walks over his first 19-plus innings makes tonight a tough spot to back the dog.
Find out where my best bets lie in Blue Jays vs. Yankees MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, April 22.
Blue Jays vs Yankees odds
Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions
Gerrit Cole has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball out of the gates. He's currently the AL Cy Young odds favorite, coming off a complete game shutout, and hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit to a right-handed bat all year, which is bad news for the predominately right-handed lineup of the Blue Jays.
Cole has given up just 13 hits over 28.1 innings of work, including zero home runs and a 32:8 K/BB ratio. He’ll also have the benefit of double-digit winds blowing in from center this afternoon.
Some think the Jays have “Cole’s number”, but the truth is the New York pitcher was rather unlucky vs. the Jays last year, posting a .889 WHIP over three starts, which included 12 hits and a 12:4 K/BB ratio. The majority of the damage and why he had a 5.00 ERA in three starts was in part to three home runs. Toronto hit .188 vs. Cole a season ago.
Speaking of early starts, Toronto will likely turn to some bench players to start this game after a 6-1 win last night. The Toronto “B” lineup is not a pretty sight and the bottom half of this lineup already isn't helping out the big bats of the top-four spots. Dalton Varsho, Brandon Belt, Danny Jansen, Cavan Biggio, and Santiago Espinal are hitting just over .165 combined.
Cole could also have the comfort of getting some rest between innings and pitching with the lead, as Alek Manoah is dealing with some mechanical issues and he’s had some velocity and command concerns as well. He’s sporting a 6.98 ERA, but even that might be undeserving as his expected ERA sits at 8.05.
Alek Manoah has been busy putting together “pieces to the puzzle” of his delivery. He liked the process, if not the results, of his last start vs Rays. Against the Yankees this weekend, he’ll see if the picture is now all there:https://t.co/mmZSijTgIL
— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) April 20, 2023
The walks (15 in 19.1 innings) could be a cause for concern today. Although this isn’t an extremely potent New York offense that’s missing some bats, it’s still a lineup that's been putting together long at-bats and has been taking walks at a high rate.
Cole will likely ask the bullpen to get the final six outs, and that shouldn’t be an issue, as Michael King and Clay Holmes are two of the best.
There are plenty of correlated bets I like in this game: Manoah Over 1.5 walks (-150), the Jays’ team total Under 3.5 (-130), and Cole Over 18.5 outs (-110), but the plus-money run line is widely available and still has some value despite plenty of money coming in on the Yankees this morning.
My best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+120 at SIA)
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Blue Jays vs Yankees moneyline analysis
I’m not falling into the narrative that Manoah is a Yankee killer. He’s had great games vs. the divisional rivals, but is still just 2-1 over six starts with a 2.31 ERA, which isn’t that far from his career ERA of 2.86.
Now, we add in his command issues and struggles getting outs to begin the season, and I’m not trusting the right-hander until he shows me those are behind him.
He’s made four starts vs. St. Louis, KC, Detroit, and Tampa Bay, and is lucky his ERA is just 6.98 when his xERA is at 8.05. The walks are a great indicator of some issues with his mechanics, as his 6.98 BB/9 is unheard of for a frontend starter, and well off his career mark of 2.91. It’s been four starts with this spotty command, so I’m not sure he's just going to fix the issue over five days — especially vs. this lineup.
New York might not have an intimidating offense now with Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf, but this team knows how to take pitches and draw free passes, as it's tied for seventh in BB% and has a solid K/BB ratio. That's great when facing a pitcher who has an xBA of .290 and an xSLG of .560 on the season — both in the bottom 17% of the league.
The Yankees won’t need much run support anyway as Cole will get the ball and has been basically unhittable through four starts and even tougher on right-handers. Righties are slashing just .119/.213/.119 vs the New York ace. When your batting average and slugging against are the same number, you’re doing a pretty good job.
Cole should pitch into the late innings today but is still backed by a bullpen that currently has the best ERA in the American League at 2.19. From start to finish, it’s going to be a tough afternoon for the Toronto bats, who currently sit outside the Top 10 in wRC+, slugging, WAR, and ISO.
I don’t love taking home teams on the run line, but with Cole throwing up donuts and Manoah’s struggles, today is a day I’m willing to take New York -1.5 at +120 or longer. Better numbers were available earlier as the market hit the Yankees hard as they opened at -145.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
A bet on the Over 7.5 here is a vote of confidence for the New York offense, which is why some money has come in on the Under.
If Manaoh hasn’t worked through any of his command issues, I’d hate to be sitting with this Under, as the Toronto starter has struggled even vs. terrible offenses. Because of the walks, he’s in high-stress situations early and often and can’t find a strike when he needs to, walking 40% of his batters in a full count.
Then we have Cole on the other side, who has yet to give up an extra-base hit to a right-hander this season and also gets double-digit winds blowing in which help negate his only weakness which is the long ball.
If I’m dead set on betting this total, I’d much prefer the Toronto team total Under 3.5 (-130) than the full-game Under 7.5 that has moved 10 points to the Under since opening.
Blue Jays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, April 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNET, YES |
Blue Jays vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Alek Manoah (1-1, 6.98 ERA): Manoah has struggled out of the gates and is coming off a seven-run performance in his last start vs. the Rays. Making his numbers even worse is that two of his starts have come against the Tigers and Royals — two of the worst offenses in baseball. His velocity is back where it should be but command issues are plaguing the right-hander. He currently sits in the bottom 20% of the league in BB%, K%, barrel%, xSLG, xBA, and xERA.
Gerrit Cole (4-0, 0.95 ERA): Cole is coming off a complete-game, 10-K shutout of the Twins and has allowed just three runs over four starts — 28.1 innings. He’s faced 100 batters and has allowed just 13 hits while holding right-handers to a .332 OPS. This is a top pitcher in top form.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Cole’s last five home starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
