Blue Jays vs Twins Predictions, Picks, Odds: Batters Miss the Mark at Target Field

The Minnesota Twins’ bats are making noise again, and they’ll look to do more damage this afternoon as they face the Toronto Blue Jays in the series decider.

The Twins slugged their way back into form yesterday with a much-needed 9-7 win, piling up 14 hits and smashing four homers, including a pair of dingers from Willi Castro.

Chris Bassitt took the loss for the Blue Jays, who rallied twice and had the go-ahead run at the plate in the top of the ninth inning. Toronto has dropped its last three series, and turns to Jose Berrios against his former team this afternoon.

Find out more in our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Twins on May 28.

Blue Jays vs Twins odds

Blue Jays vs Twins predictions

But for an injury to Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober might still be playing Triple-A ball with St. Paul right now. Instead, he’s seized the opportunity as part of Minnesota’s starting rotation, guiding the Twins to three wins over his last four starts.

The 27-year-old has made a leap this season, amping up his fastball velocity and pairing it with a sharp slider. In doing so, he’s also been a magnet for the Under – it’s cashed in each of his last five starts at Target Field.

When you pair Ober’s impressive form with Toronto starter Jose Berrios’ familiarity with pitching at Target Field after spending six years with the Twins, there’s a compelling case for the Under this afternoon, with both starters capable of putting a string of zeros on the scoreboard.

The Blue Jays haven’t seen a lot of Ober’s stuff, and their hitters will likely be figuring him out on the fly. In a very small sample size, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are 1-for-12 against the Minnesota right-hander.

The Under may seem like a bold move after the teams combined for 16 runs and 24 hits yesterday, but we’ve seen the better version of Berrios lately, and I’m expecting a contest closer to Friday’s tight 3-1 scoreline.

My best bet: Under 8.5 (-111 at SIA)

Blue Jays vs Twins moneyline analysis

The Blue Jays are the slightest of favorites this afternoon, perhaps getting that narrow edge due to Berrios’ experience edge over Ober and his steady record against the Twins’ best hitters. Joey Gallo is 2-for-16 lifetime against him, while Willi Castro is 0-for-7, and Carlos Correa is 3-for-11.

But the Twins’ hitters seem to have found a better rhythm than Toronto’s big bats. Castro’s two-HR day stole the headlines yesterday, while Matt Wallner went 4-for-4, and Edouard Julien served up two doubles and a homer. Correa sat that game out to rest a foot injury, but he’s expected to be back this afternoon.

The Blue Jays have found wins hard to come by in May. They’re 3-10 over their last 13 games, and they’re 0-5 in their last five contests when their opponent scores five or more runs in their previous outing. There’s at least some optimism for the visitors with their 5-2 mark in the teams’ last seven meetings in Minnesota.

Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under analysis

With his 2.55 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, Ober has bamboozled hitters this season, with his trends pointing to the Under this afternoon. That’s hit in his last eight starts when Minnesota has allowed five runs or more in its prior contest.

Meanwhile, Berrios has put together four straight strong outings, pulling his ERA down to 4.22 after an ugly start to the year. He held the high-flying Tampa Bay Rays to just one run in seven innings of work on Tuesday.

It’s worth noting, though, that the visitors have saved some of their best hitting for at-bats against the league’s stingiest aces. The Over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays’ last four matchups against a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15.

But continuing that streak will require a bounce-back afternoon from Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman, who are a combined 1-for-17 in this series. Bichette, who has six RBIs over the last two games, can only do so much.

Blue Jays vs Twins game info

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (4-4, 4.22 ERA): The Berrios rollercoaster has been a lot smoother in May, and he’s allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. This afternoon, he returns to Minnesota, where he produced three seasons with double-digit wins.

Bailey Ober (3-1, 2.55 ERA): Ober has looked like he belongs in the big leagues with his performances this season, including seven shutout innings against the Cleveland Guardians in early May. Powered by an effective fastball, he’s lasted at least six innings in three of his last four starts.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Under is 6-0 across Ober’s last six starts when the opponent has scored five or more runs in their last game. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins

Weather

Pages related to this topic