Things have gone from bad to worse for the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays lost the series finale with the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday for their eighth loss in their last 10 games, and their 13th in their last 15 when facing American League East opponents.
Yesterday’s loss prompted a players-only meeting following the game, and if the Blue Jays want to start turning things around, there’s no time like the present. Tonight, they hand the ball to staff ace Kevin Gausman as they begin a three-game set against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field.
The Blue Jays are sizeable favorites in the opener, as the Twins counter with young right-hander Louie Varland. Can Toronto get the job done, or is there value in the MLB odds with Minnesota as home underdogs?
I break down this American League matchup and bring you my best MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Twins on Friday, May 26.
Blue Jays vs Twins odds
Blue Jays vs Twins predictions
The Blue Jays are in a dark place right now. The 20-1 win against the Rays on Tuesday seems like a distant memory at this point. Toronto is 2-8 in its last 10 games overall, and 2-13 in its last 15 vs. AL East opponents. That’s exactly how closed-door players-only meetings are born.
If they hope to turn things around quickly, they’ll need to start playing better fundamental baseball and get solid performances from their starting pitching. They have the latter part covered with Kevin Gausman taking the ball tonight.
Despite the fact the team is just 4-6 in his starts this season, Gausman has been outstanding. The right-hander is pitching to a 3.14 expected ERA and a 2.47 FIP while leading the junior circuit in strikeouts.
Tonight, he gets an interesting matchup against the Twins. Minnesota is not a team that hits for a great average, but they do have some pop. The Twins rank 26th in batting average but are eighth in home runs. So, the key to holding down the Twins is limiting the long ball. Gausman has the tools for that.
Gausman’s splitter is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, and can zap the power out of any bat. Opponents have a miniscule .223 expected slugging percentage against that pitch this season, and he is giving up just 0.9 home runs per nine innings.
The Twins are definitely leaning into this swing-for-the-fences mentality because while they are hitting home runs, they also strike out a ton. They have the second-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitchers this season (25.6%).
This all adds up to another solid day on the mound for Gausman, who ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to strikeout rate.
Minnesota counters Gausman with Louie Varland. The 25-year-old right-hander is making just his sixth start of the season. He is pitching to a 4.60 xERA and giving up a .474 expected slugging percentage to opponents. While the Blue Jays' hitters are struggling by their standards, they still rank second in batting average, seventh in OPS, and fourth in wRC+ when digging in against righties this season.
I really like Gausman to do his best here and carry the Blue Jays out of this slump, and expect him to pitch deep into this ball game. Over 18.5 outs recorded at -115 is worth a look, as he’s gone Over that number in five of his last eight starts. But I’m backing him to shut down the Twins and provide his team the chance to have the lead through five innings.
My best bet: Blue Jays -0.5 five-inning runline (-105 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Bet with one of Canada’s best
Looking to bet on some Jays action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors.
Blue Jays vs Twins moneyline analysis
Baseball is a funny sport when it comes to betting lines. The Blue Jays are in a real slump, and you can tell the tension is starting to boil over for them. But oddsmakers only care about the staring pitching matchup, and Toronto has a significant edge there tonight. That’s why the Blue Jays hit the board as -145 road favorites, and have since climbed to the -155 range depending on the book.
This matchup is made even more funny when you consider these teams’ respective standings. Toronto is slumping, sitting at 26-25, and has looked outmatched by their division rivals. While Minnesota, at 26-24 is leading the Central Division, where their biggest threat at the moment is *checks notes* the Detroit Tigers?
The Twins have climbed into first place thanks to some outstanding starting pitching, and taking advantage of their matchups in a weak AL Central. The bullpens look like a wash, but with the better starting pitcher and better lineup, I would lean toward the visitors tonight.
Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under analysis
The total for this AL matchup hit the board at an even 8, and has been bet down to 7.5 as of Friday afternoon. I would have leaned toward the Under at the opening number, but I’ll stay away from the total where it currently stands.
The Over/Under is 5-5 when Gausman takes the ball this season, which is kind of stunning considering he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts with five goose-eggs. Generally, that means Gausman has pitched well, handed the ball to the bullpen, and watched everything fall apart.
The other problem is the Jays have given him very little support. Toronto is averaging just 3.1 runs per game when he is on the mound this season.
As noted above, I expect him to pitch well again tonight, but 7.5 feels a little low. The Blue Jays' order, while inconsistent, still has a ton of potential, while the Twins could knock a couple out of the park. There’s too much variance there, so no play for me.
Blue Jays vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, May 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSN, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.14 ERA): Gausman has arguably been even better than his 3.14 ERA suggests, but he just hasn't been getting run support from his teammates this season. He has held opponents to zero earned runs in five of his 10 starts.
Louie Varland (2-0, 4.18 ERA): Varland has just 10 career starts to his name, but his stuff says he has the potential to stick around. He has 31 strikeouts in 28 innings pitched, punching out 26.3% of the batters he has faced this season.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. American League Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins
