The Toronto Blue Jays punched their ticket to the postseason last week but where they play in the Wild Card round is still up in the air.
The Jays will hand the ball to Jose Berrios, and while the right-hander’s season has been a violent old wooden roller coaster that does a number on your back and heart, there may be some value in backing him in this matchup.
Find out my best bet in tonight’s MLB betting picks and predictions for this AL East battle between the Blue Jays and Orioles.
Blue Jays vs Orioles best odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles picks and predictions
If the Blue Jays can manage to win one game against the Orioles in this series, that would mean the Mariners would have to go 4-0 in their final series against the Detroit Tigers to overtake Toronto for the top Wild Card spot.
The Jays' best chance to win a game in this one will be tonight, even with the volatile Jose Berrios on the mound.
With a 5.37 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, this has been Berrios’ worst season since his rookie year in 2016. But the season has had plenty of ups and downs for the right-hander. For example, Berrios had a six-start stretch from mid-August to mid-September where he recorded five quality starts and owned a 2.95 ERA.
He then followed that up by getting rocked by the Yankees and Rays in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs in just over seven innings. However, if there is one team Berrios has been consistent against this season it's been the Orioles. This is a little surprising when could consider Baltimore's breakout this year.
Berrios has three quality starts in three games against the O's this season, giving up seven earned runs on 18 hits over 19 innings.
The Jays are definitely hoping for a long outing from Berrios tonight. It sounds like the team is resting Kevin Gausman until the playoffs after suffering a cut on his pitching hand in his last game. And they would certainly like to hold off on using Alek Manoah as well. That could mean a lot of innings for the Jays' bullpen.
On top of that, while the breakout season for the Orioles was a lot of fun and they are close to making that jump, it looks like the team is a little disheartened since officially being eliminated from postseason contention — plating just nine runs in their last five games.
Bet on Berrios to go Over his outs recorded prop of 17.5, a number he has surprisingly gone Over 16 times this season.
My best bet: Jose Berrios Over 17.5 outs recorded (-105 at BetMGM)
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Blue Jays vs Orioles moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL East battle as about -140 favorites but the early money has come in on the Orioles, moving the line to Toronto -130. And with how inconsistent Jose Berrios has been this season, I get it.
Let’s put it this way. When Berrios has his good stuff he’s been good and when he’s been bad, he’s been really bad. In fact, he has 16 quality starts while at the same time having seven outings that have lasted four innings or fewer.
On the other side, Dean Kremer has basically been the exact opposite of Berrios. He has been one of the American League’s most reliable starters in the second half of the season. The right-hander has pitched at least five innings in 11 straight games, pitching to a 2.65 ERA over that span.
Kremer has also put in good work against the Jays over that stretch, holding them to a respectable six earned runs on 17 hits over 18 innings.
The value is probably with the O’s here thanks to Berrios’ inconsistencies, but he is still capable of a good performance and has the backing of an excellent offense. I’ll stay away.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Over/Under analysis
The total might be the easier thing to attack here, as 7.5 seems too low for a game in which Berrios is pitching and involves the Jays' offense.
On top of Berrios’ other struggles, his numbers on the road have been less than good, pitching to a 6.75 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP.
And even though Kremer has been solid against the Jays, he hasn’t been perfect, and he’ll eventually hand the ball to a bullpen that has fallen off in the latter part of the season. The Baltimore bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA (4.94) since the start of September.
They’ll have their hands full with a Blue Jays’ lineup that ranks first in batting average, third in OPS, and fifth in scoring at 4.83 runs per game.
No official play for me here but I would lean towards the Over.
Blue Jays vs Orioles trend to know
The Over is 19-5-3 in the last 27 meetings between the Blue Jays and Orioles when they play in Baltimore. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
|Location:||Orioles Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD|
|Date:||Monday, October 3, 2022|
|First pitch:||7:05 p.m. ET|
Jose Berrios (11-7, 5.37 ERA): Just when it feels like Berrios has figured something out this season, he slips and falls. He had pitched into the sixth inning and allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of six starts, but has been hammered in his last two, giving up a combined 11 runs on 16 hits over 7 1-3 innings against the Yankees and Rays. (Not a great sign for the postseason).
Dean Kremer (8-6, 3.17 ERA): Kremer looks to be a key piece of the Orioles rotation moving forward after a breakout season. The right-hander hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in each of his last games. That includes a complete-game shutout of the Houston Astros back on Sept. 23.
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