Is Yusei Kikuchi good now? That’s the question the Toronto Blue Jays get to ask themselves as the lefty takes the mound for tonight’s matchup against the Cleveland Guardians in hopes of extending their winning streak to five games.
Kikuchi is going through one of the best stretches of his career and now he gets to face a Guardians squad that really struggles vs. southpaws. With Cleveland countering Kikuchi with Tanner Bibee, is there any chance this game goes Over the total?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet — plus a juicy same-game parlay — in my MLB picks and predictions for the Blue Jays vs. Guardians.
Blue Jays vs Guardians odds
Blue Jays vs Guardians predictions
No seriously, is Yusei Kikuchi good now? The LHP has clearly been much better than he was in 2022, as refining his pitches and delivery has helped him miss more bats and cut down his walks. Overall, his 4.44 expected ERA is solid, but he’s taken it to the next level lately.
Kikuchi has allowed just three earned runs over his last four starts, good enough for a 1.23 ERA. He has also struck out 23 batters in 22 innings pitched, and more importantly, hasn’t given up a home run over that span. Those games included starts against the Orioles, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.
Tonight, he takes the ball against a light-hitting Cleveland Guardians lineup that really struggles vs. southpaws. Cleveland ranks dead last in OPS and 29th wRC+ when going against left-handed pitching this season, and we just saw Hyun-Jin Ryu tie this lineup in knots before he got hurt last night.
On the other side, the Guardians will hand the ball to a rookie for the second straight game in Tanner Bibee, after Gavin Williams carved up the Toronto Blue Jays — shutting them out on one hit while striking out 12 over seven innings.
Bibee has arguably been more effective so far this season. The righty is pitching to a 3.62 xERA, limiting opponents to a .265 xSLG, and is above league average when it comes to strikeout rate. He’s in a groove right now, posting a 2.04 ERA while limiting opponents to a .209 batting average over six starts since the beginning of July.
Even though the Blue Jays handle RHP well, their struggles to drive in runs returned last night following their weekend outburst at Fenway Park. Overall, Toronto ranks 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position this season.
On top of that, this game features two solid bullpens. The Jays' relievers rank fifth in xFIP and strikeouts per nine innings, while the Guardians rank 16th in xFIP and get All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase back after he served a one-game suspension for his part in the weekend kerfuffle with the Chicago White Sox.
I’m betting we see a low-scoring affair for the second straight game between these two teams.
My best bet: Under 8 (-110 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Guardians same-game parlay
Under 8.5
Straw Under 0.5 hits
Kikuchi Under 5.5 Ks
Today my SGP is Yusei Kikuchi themed. As always, my ticket starts with my best bet, which for this matchup is the Under 8 — but for parlay purposes I'm bumping that number up a half run to give myself a touch more breathing room and starting with Under 8.5.
Now, not a lot of current Guardians have at bats vs. Kikuchi. But one who does is centerfielder Myles Straw, and those ABs have not gone well. Straw is 1-for-9 with three strikeouts in his career vs. Kikuchi. Not to mention he's also batting just .239 for the season. I'm banking on him to have a donut at the dish tonight and taking the Under on his 0.5 hits.
But while the Guardians have absolutely no pop when facing southpaws, surprisingly they don’t strike out a ton against them either. In fact, Cleveland has the lowest K-rate in baseball when facing left-handed pitchers this season, and Kikuchi’s strikeouts seem to vary from start to start. Overall, he ranks in the 59th percentile when it comes to K-rate. So, I'm close out this SGP with the Under 5.5 Kikuchi strikeouts.
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Blue Jays vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this American League East matchup in the -110 to -115 range and have seen the early money. Toronto is now in the -135 range as of Tuesday afternoon. The movement makes sense when considering that while the pitching is close to a push, the Blue Jays have a decided edge when it comes to the lineups — even with Bo Bichette still out.
That said, if you got Toronto near the opening number, good on you. Because at the current number, I am a little more hesitant. There is still a little fear a Kikuchi regression is just beyond the horizon. Combine that with Toronto’s struggles when it comes to getting that clutch hit and a loss is certainly on the table for the road team.
When it comes to the total. it hit the board at 8.5 and was quickly bet down to an even 8.0. But now, some 7.5s are starting to pop up, so go grab the Under 8.0 while you can.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the Under on the full game total in 33 of their last 52 games for +14.55 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians
Blue Jays vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
Starting pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi (9-3, 3.67 ERA): Kikuchi looks like an entirely different starter this year. He's changed his delivery and curtailed his pitch arsenal. He has cut down his walks and even limited the home runs over the last month.
Tanner Bibee (7-2, 3.14 ERA): Bibee is yet another great-looking Guardians' pitching prospect. The right hander uses mostly a four-seam fastball and a slider and has limited opponents to three earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts.
