The Blue Jays drew first blood in this high-stakes four-game series, edging out the AL East-leading Yankees 5-4 in a tense opener. With momentum on their side, they’ll look to keep the pressure on in Tuesday’s Canada Day clash.
It’s a marquee pitching duel on deck, as Kevin Gausman takes the mound against Max Fried. Oddsmakers are expecting another close one — and if the Jays want to cash in as underdogs again, they’ll need Gausman to deliver early and often.
Keep an eye on the totals and moneyline for this one — there’s value to be found.
My Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks break down why Gausman’s splitter is the perfect pitch to make those Yankees bats whiff on Canada Day.
Blue Jays predictions for July 1
- Best bet
Kevin Gausman Over 6.0 Strikeouts
(-133 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 Singles
(+460 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Kevin's K's
Kevin Gausman Over 6.0 Strikeouts (-133 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays struck first in this massive series against the New York Yankees, taking the opener by a final score of 5-4.
The Blue Jays got five strong innings from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, who allowed just two runs and struck out seven. The Yankees ended up striking out 12 times in Monday night’s matchup.
Getting punched out has been a theme for this Yankees lineup recently.
The Bronx Bombers had the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the month of June at 24.4%. They also now have the seventh-highest K-rate when facing right-handed pitching this season. That means they’re probably not too happy to see Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman on the bump on Canada Day.
Gausman has battled his consistency this season, but his splitter is still one of the most effective pitches in baseball and is coming off arguably his best start of the season.
Opposing hitters have just a .180 expected batting average and a .224 expected slugging vs. Gausman’s splitter this season, and it was dancing last time out. The right-hander is coming off shutting out the Cleveland Guardians on just two hits and striking out six over eight innings.
Gausman also has a history of racking up the Ks against this New York lineup. Current Yankees hitters have combined for a big 32.6% strikeout rate over 218 plate appearances vs. Gausman.
Wear your red, and back Gausman to go Over 6.0 strikeouts today. A number he’s at least matched in 10 of his last 14 starts.
Happy K-anada Day!
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 Singles
While I like Gausman to rack up the Ks in today’s Canada Day showdown, strikeouts might be a little harder to come by for his opponent.
Max Fried has been really good for the Yankees, but is just above average when it comes to strikeouts, ranking in the 66th percentile this season. And the matchup with the Blue Jays isn’t an easy one.
Toronto does a great job against lefties, ranking second in batting average, seventh in OPS, and sixth in wRC+. But most importantly, this lineup strikes out at the second-lowest rate in baseball vs. southpaws this season.
Fried has just a 13.1% K-rate vs current Jays batters and struck out just three when they last met back at the end of April.
One of the Blue Jays that is the hardest to strike out is Alejandro Kirk. The Jays catcher has cooled off a bit, but is still hitting .311 for the season and ranks in the 96th percentile in expected batting average.
He’s also 2-for-6 in his career vs. Fried, good for a .440 xBA. Let’s round this Canada Day same-game parlay with Kirk to hit a single.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Tuesday, July 1, 2025 |
| First pitch | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Max Fried (10-2, 1.92 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.21 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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