If this isn’t rock bottom for the Toronto Blue Jays this season, it’s close.
Toronto is in shambles after giving up a five-game lead in the American League East in a little over a week. But my Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks believe they can put the negativity behind them with a win in the series finale against the Boston Red Sox.
The turnaround should start at the top with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on Thursday, September 25.
Blue Jays predictions for September 25
- Best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
(+110 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
George Springer Over 0.5 runs
Louis Varland Over 1.5 strikeouts
(+750 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Vladdy to the Rescue
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at BetVictor)
There aren’t many teams in baseball that need a win worse than the Toronto Blue Jays (maybe the Detroit Tigers).
Toronto has lost six of its last seven games and is now tied with the New York Yankees at the top of the AL East (even if it doesn’t feel that way to Jays fans). The offense has dried up. And last night’s 7-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox might have been the low point of the season to this point.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got thrown out of the game arguing a strike call, and it was emblematic of the Blue Jays’ current frustrations.
Despite all the doom and gloom, Toronto still holds its division title destiny in its own hands. And if they want to turn things around, it needs to start with their Guerrero.
Yes, Vladdy is in a slump. Hell, he’s been downright bad for close to two weeks. But he has been one of the best hitters in baseball all season long. He still ranks in the 100th percentile in expected batting average for goodness' sake.
But the Blue Jays need him to step up immediately. Starting with tonight against Red Sox’s starter Brayan Bello.
The right-hander is another Boston starter who has been a little lucky this season. Despite a 3.34 ERA, his expected ERA is more than a run higher at 4.46 which ranks in the 28th percentile.
Vladdy has also always seen the ball well off of Bello, going 11-for-27 with four doubles, two dingers and just four strikeouts. That has him sporting a .325 xBA and a .668 xSLG against the Boston starter.
The AL East isn’t lost yet for the Blue Jays. But the turnaround must start with Vladdy against Bello tonight.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
George Springer Over 0.5 runs
Louis Varland Over 1.5 strikeouts
One of the few Blue Jays you can’t blame this slump on is George Springer. He’s been outstanding for the Blue Jays all season, and that hasn’t changed. Springer is hitting .358 with a .980 OPS over the last two weeks.
He’s also scored eight runs during that period. Whether it’s a Springer Dinger or Vladdy knocking him home, let’s take him to score another run tonight.
And let’s get the Blue Jays off to a good start on the pitching side of things. Toronto will go with a bullpen day, which will likely feature Eric Lauer in a bulk role, but they are handing the ball to Louis Varland as an opener.
But the Jays could definitely use Varland for more than one inning. He’s thrown more than one inning in five of his last nine appearances. The right-hander throws an easy 98 mph and has an above-average K-rate at 24.6%.
The Red Sox have the ninth-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching this season and have been getting punched out a lot by the Jays' starting pitching in this series. I like Varland to get off to a hot start and keep that going.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Thursday, September 25, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.57 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (11-8, 3.34 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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