That’s a tough start to a series. The Toronto Blue Jays came back from the early deficit, only to watch closer Jeff Hoffman get rocked for a grand slam, handing the opener to the visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
So, Toronto must bounce back quickly as it looks to even the series against its American League East rivals. And that starts with pitching.
My Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks highlight a player prop for starter Chris Bassitt, who has a great chance to rack up the punchouts in the matchup on Wednesday, May 14.
Blue Jays predictions for May 14
- Best bet
Chris Bassitt o5.5 strikeouts
(-118 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Chris Bassitt o5.5 strikeouts
Ryan Pepiot u17.5 outs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 total bases
(+525 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: The hound steps up
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118 at BetVictor)
Game 1 of this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays was a roller coaster. The Rays jumped out to a 4-0 lead, but the Blue Jays fought back on the strength of a pair of Daulton Varsho dingers to take a 7-6 lead heading to the top of the ninth.
Unfortunately, it was another tough outing for closer Jeff Hoffman, who surrendered five runs on four hits, resulting in an eventual 11-9 win for the Rays.
If the Jays want to even this series, they know they’ll need a better showing from their starting pitching. That starts with Chris Bassitt.
The veteran right-hander has cooled off after a hot start, but the man with the seemingly endless supply of pitches is still spinning most of them well, and I like his chances to be effective in this matchup.
Bassitt is pitching to a 3.17 expected ERA while striking out 25% of batters. Those rank in the 72nd and 68th percentiles, respectively.
He's also mixing his pitches very well to keep hitters off balance, creating a lot of soft contact. He ranks in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and the 71st in hard-hit rate, which will play well against this Rays team.
Tampa Bay boasts the third-lowest barrel rate while also ranking 23rd in OPS and 17th in wRC+. The Rays also have the seventh-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
That means Bassitt will have a great chance to pitch deep and rack up the strikeouts. Bassitt's strikeout prop is 5.5, a number he's topped in four of his eight starts.
He also went Over this number in two of his three starts against the Rays last season and has a K-rate of nearly 26% against current Rays batters.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 strikeouts
Ryan Pepiot Under 17.5 outs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Countering Bassitt is Ryan Pepiot, who owns a 3.86 ERA but could be in for a bit of a regression.
Pepiot’s expected ERA sits at 4.43, which ranks in the 33rd percentile among MLB pitchers. He also doesn’t have a great walk rate at 8.6%. That inefficiency mixed with an OK leash means he doesn’t have a huge ceiling when it comes to pitching deep into games.
He averages 90 pitches per start and his max innings pitched this season is six. If the Jays can work some counts, they will be able to get Pepiot out of this game before he reaches that mark tonight.
Let’s also back Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to take advantage of this potential regression. Vladdy came through for us yesterday with a late RBI double. He is now hitting .326 with an .826 OPS in May.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Wednesday, May 14, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.35 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ryan Pepiot (2-4, 3.86 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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