If the Toronto Blue Jays want to make anything of this season, they’re going to have to start hitting.
The Jays have scored a total of four runs in their last five games overall, and now they’ll have to face a Texas Rangers starter with a 1.80 ERA in Tyler Mahle.
What does Toronto have to do to bust out of this slump? My Blue Jays predictions for May 28 break down how being patient at the plate tonight will be key, and they provide MLB picks to accompany it.
Blue Jays predictions for May 28
- Best bet
Mahle u18 outs
(-138 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Mahle u17.5 outs
Mahle o4.5 hits allowed
Guerrero Jr. o0.5 RBI
(+440 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Mahle's outing cut short
Tyler Mahle Under 18 Outs (-138 at BetVictor)
Consistency, particularly when it comes to hitting, has been a real problem for the Toronto Blue Jays this season.
Since May 23, Toronto has played more games (five) than it has scored runs (four), and it can’t be encouraging when you look across and see a guy who is pitching to a 1.80 ERA this season.
But that’s exactly what the Blue Jays will face when they close out their series against Tyler Mahle and the Texas Rangers.
Not that the Rangers have been much better at scoring, plating just three runs this series, but they certainly have an edge on the mound tonight. So, what is a slumping offense to do?
It all starts with being patient at the plate. While Mahle has an impressive ERA, there are some cracks in that armor. The Rangers’ righty has been effective, but definitely not as effective as that ERA indicates.
His advanced numbers tell a different story. Mahle has a 3.85 expected ERA while allowing a .260 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 49th and 26th percentiles, respectively.
Suffice to say, he’s been a little lucky. Mahle doesn’t overpower you; he uses his fastball and splitter combo to create soft contact and also ranks in the 25th percentile in strikeout rate. However, his command isn’t outstanding, ranking in the 43rd percentile in walk rate.
If the Blue Jays go out and swing early in the count, they'll hit into a lot of outs. However, if they are patient, not only will they be able to raise his pitch count quickly, but they’ll also get some pitches to hit and have a chance to knock Mahle out of the game early.
Mahle has an outs recorded prop sitting at 18 (six innings), but he’s only hit that mark in three of his last six starts, despite never allowing more than three runs in any of those.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Mahle Under 17.5 outs
Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 hits
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI
I noted Mahle's xBA is in just the 36th percentile. The Jays don’t hit for much power, but they have guys who can put the bat on the ball. Mahle has allowed five or more hits four times in his last six starts.
If there is a Blue Jays batter who needs to lead by example today, it's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto’s star slugger went 0-for-4 last night and struck out to end the game.
But Vladdy has been locked in most of the season, ranking in the 96th percentile in xBA, so he’s not going to stay down long. He’s also hitting .283 with a .836 OPS in many, and he’s taken Mahle deep in the past.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, May 28, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | TBD |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Tyler Mahle (5-2, 1.80 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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