We’ve got a busy betting slate around Major League Baseball tonight, including the series opener between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Kevin Gausman has been dishing at the plate since the All-Star break, and I expect him to continue that tonight against a pitiful Pirates offense.
Find out why with my free Toronto Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Monday, August 18 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for August 18
- Best bet
Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs allowed
(-140 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs allowed
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
(+500 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Gausman baffles Bucs
Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-140 at BetVictor)
We’ve got another outstanding pitchers' duel on our hands tonight as Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays fly down to PNC Park to take on Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Skenes is 7-9 on the year with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, while striking out 10.1 batters per nine-innings. The record is what I’m focusing on here, because it’s unfathomable to see a losing record with those types of individual numbers, but it speaks to how horrendous the Pirates are offensively.
Pittsburgh has scored a league-worst 439 runs this season with an 80 WRC+, which ranks 29th in baseball. They also own a .232 team batting average this season while authoring the fourth-worst strikeout rate across the majors (23.4%) with a 34% K-rate against the splitter, Gausman's put-out pitch.
Let’s fade this offense and back Gausman’s solid run to continue by taking the Under of 2.5 earned runs.
Gausman has been dealing since the All-Star break. In his five starts since, he sports a 2.45 ERA while averaging 6.8 strikeouts, 3.4 hits, and just 1.8 runs per game.
It’s a perfect storm of Gausman heating up, and a freezing-cold group of bats in Pittsburgh to fade.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs allowed
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Gausman has gone over this strikeout number in three of his last five outings, and the Pirates are susceptible to swing-and-miss stuff with a 34.5% K-rate against the splitter.
For the final leg of the SGP, let’s take Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to go Over 1.5 total bases. If anyone is going to have success against Skenes, it’ll be him.
He owns an 1.118 OPS this month, averaging 2.9 bases per game. He is hitting .325 against the four-seamer, Skenes’ most utilized pitch.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Monday, August 18, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (8-9, 3.79 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (7-9, 2.13 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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