The MLB All-Star Game is quickly approaching, which means the marathon 162-game baseball season is nearing its unofficial midway point.
That gives us an opportunity to look at some of the preseason MLB odds and take account of where teams stand at this point. Which players or teams are overachieving in terms of awards or World Series odds and which ones have been a total disappointment?
Check out my five biggest baseball odds overachievers and underachievers at the midway point of the 2023 big league season below.
Overachievers
Tampa Bay Rays
When it comes to overachievers, why not start with the Rays? Over the last few seasons, I’ve learned to not underestimate Tampa Bay. But even coming into this season with a solid win total of 88.5, not many could have expected this.
They got off to a historic start, finishing April with a 23-6 record. At their current pace, they could go Over that win total by the end of August. The Rays are currently the +225 favorites to win the AL Pennant. They hit, they pitch, and if they can navigate some of the tough injuries they have been dealt, that first World Series title could be within their grasp.
Baltimore Orioles
Let’s keep this in the American League East. Most baseball nerds knew there was something behind the Orioles' breakout in 2022. The O’s farm system has been loaded with talent for years, and their future is as bright as anyone's in baseball. But I’m not sure if we were expecting it to be this bright this fast.
"It's just kind of the brand of baseball that we are playing...it's very entertaining, these guys are really athletic, they play really hard, they really like each other."
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 27, 2023
- @Orioles GM Mike Elias on his club's 48-29 start!#HighHeat | #Birdland | @MadDogUnleashed pic.twitter.com/gdAdhovULS
Following an 83-win campaign in 2022, the Orioles had sort of a lackluster offseason, and their regular season win total was a modest 78.5. But Baltimore believed in what it had in house, and we should have too. Thanks to a young and dynamic lineup and an elite bullpen, the O’s are on pace to win 100 games and blow past that win total.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks look like the Orioles of the National League. The D-backs have seemingly come out of nowhere to lead a very tough NL West division just a couple of weeks ahead of the All-Star break. That said, they are still +330 to win the division.
Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly form a solid one-two punch at the top of the Arizona rotation. The lineup is balanced and deep, highlighted by rookie phenom Corbin Carroll. And since they entered the year with a win total of 74.5, the D-backs might earn the title for biggest overachiever through the first half of the season.
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Luis Arraez, 2B, Miami Marlins
This may be a bit of a controversial inclusion, since Luis Arraez just won a batting title by hitting .316 last season. But that’s just how magical hitting the fabled .400 mark is in baseball. Ted Williams was the last player to accomplish the feat all the way back in 1941.
Arraez is currently hitting .398 for the Marlins, and he will have a legitimate chance to give that hallowed number a real run the rest of the way. He just makes so much contact and has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. While an MVP is unlikely, he’s been such an impressive hitter he now has the fourth-best odds to win the award at +2,500. His chase for .400 will be one of the most interesting stories to follow in the second half of the season.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels
Can you call a guy in the GOAT conversation an overachiever? Yes. Yes, you can. That’s just how ridiculous a season Angels' two-way star Shohei Ohtani is having. As a hitter, he leads the MLB in home runs, RBIs, and OPS. As a pitcher, he leads the MLB in hits per nine innings and the AL in strikeouts per nine. Simply put, the guy is a freak.
Ohtani came into the year as one of the betting favorites in the American League MVP odds, but he has seemingly already wrapped that up, currently as the -650 favorite. The only question is if he can pull off the rare MVP-Cy Young odds combo in the same season — something only a true overachiever could do.
Honorable mention: Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, Corbin Carroll
Underachievers
New York Mets
Apparently, money can’t buy two things; happiness, and baseball wins. You can’t accuse Mets owner Steve Cohen of not spending to try and win a World Series. The Mets have the highest team payroll in baseball in 2023. That has been good for 35 wins and fourth place in the NL East.
“The Mets 42nd loss of the year is their most horrific. Buck Showalter tried to stay away from his best relievers and the Mets paid the price.” #LGM
— GENY Mets Report (@genymets) June 26, 2023
~ Gary Cohen pic.twitter.com/z1cTY14wwn
Now, the Mets are looking up at the Atlanta Braves, 15 games behind the division lead, and have seen their preseason World Series odds plummet from +1,000 to +5,500. And those holding an Over ticket on their regular season win total of 94.5 can probably go ahead and tear those up. They would need to go 60-25 over their final 85 games to cash the Over.
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ payroll isn’t as high as the Mets', but it’s not far behind and they are paying an arm and a leg for just a couple more wins. Entering the final week of June, San Diego has just 37 wins and is in fourth place in the NL West.
It’s hard to imagine a lineup featuring Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts having trouble scoring runs, but that’s exactly what has happened. San Diego ranks 20th in scoring and 24th in batting average. They’ve gone from +900 to win the World Series on Opening Day to +2,800. And going Over their season win total of 92.5 is a pipe dream at this point as the team is on pace for just about 77 wins.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are trying to pull off the rare first-to-worst swing. St. Louis won the National League Central last season with 93 wins. But I guess Yadier Molina retiring was all that was needed for the franchise to implode.
A little regression was expected with a regular season win total of 88.5, but no one expected this. The Cardinals sit in last place in what is arguably a very weak division, and are on pace for just over 67 wins. Ugly. The team ranks 23rd in ERA, so maybe they are missing Molina.
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
This was a debate between Julio Rodriguez and the Mariners as a whole. Seattle ended their postseason drought last year and hoped to take the next step this year. That just hasn’t worked out. At 37-39, they sit in fourth place in the AL West, and J-Rod not making a leap in Year 2 has been part of the problem.
Rodriguez opened the year as the fourth favorite to win the AL MVP at +700 after a breakout rookie campaign where he swatted 28 dingers with a .853 OPS. Unfortunately, he has struggled in 2023. J-Rod is hitting just .240 with a .720 OPS and is now +10,000 to win the award.
The AL Central
This is kind of a joke. But it kind of isn’t.
The Minnesota Twins lead the division. They have had a losing record for much of the first half of the season, and had just 40 wins heading into the final week of June. That would be good for no better than third place in any other division, and would be last in the AL East. And despite leading the Central, the Twins are still +2,500 to win the World Series.
The division as a whole has a -242 run differential. The next closest division is the NL Central at -70. The Cleveland Guardians were a popular preseason pennant pick, but they've been mired under .500 most of the year. The Detroit Tigers are injury-riddled. The Chicago White Sox are a disaster. And the Kansas City Royals are battling the historically bad Oakland A’s team for the worst record in baseball. I might start a petition to disband the AL Central.
Dishonorable mention: Los Angeles Dodgers, Alek Manoah, Jacob deGrom
