Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Wednesday, September 18.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 18
Kochanowicz o2.5 earned runs (+135) & u3.5 strikeouts (-130)
Ober o5.5 strikeouts (+123)
Cease u17.5 outs recorded (+155)
Schwellenbach u17.5 outs recorded (+125)
Pepiot u5.5 strikeouts (-110)
Gray u4.5 hits allowed (+128)
Today’s best SP angles
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
The angle: The market on Jack Kochanowicz has swung too much.
I love me some Jack Kochanowicz, but his markets have adjusted too much.
He is not a good pitcher. I loved his Over outs because he was efficient and guys always swing early on him because they see him well. I mean, he has just 15 Ks over 44+ innings while allowing well over a hit per frame.
He has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his eight starts this year and the White Sox haven't been the worst offense over the last 30 days, posting the same AVG as the Mets and Twins. Kochanowicz can give up hits in bunches and the ChiSox can score tonight without the long ball.
The Under 3.5 strikeouts at -130 is a buy here, too. His leash is always short and Chicago is not a Bottom-10 K% team right now. I'm expecting a lot of hits and few punchouts for the rookie starter.
The move: Jack Kochanowicz Over 2.5 earned runs (+135 at bet365) & Under 3.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
The angle: The model hates Bailey Ober and that influences the market.
The Guardians are a low K% team but the last time Bailey Ober saw them, he struck out nine over six innings.
Ober gets deep and has completed at least six frames in 13 of his last 14 starts That also includes more than 18 outs in seven of those. He is better than a K/inning guy but his strikeout prop today is sitting at 5.5 and plus money to the Over.
Ober's K prop closed at 6.5 in three of his last four starts and because the projections have him at a wildly low 4.5 Ks, it's affecting the market and giving value to the Over. If I'm going to fade the projections, I'm taking plus money. He is 11-4 to the Over across his last 15 starts. The longer you wait, the better odds you will get.
The move: Bailey Ober Over 5.5 strikeouts (+123 at Caesars)
Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres
The angle: Dylan Cease has seen a run of awful opponents.
The San Diego starter has not seen many good offenses of late. Dylan Cease has seen the Giants in back-to-back starts and they strike out a ton. Before that, it was Tampa, St. Louis, the Mets, Colorado, Miami, and Pittsburgh. Dylan Cease wasn't even great vs. that cupcake schedule, posting a 4.12 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP.
Now he gets the Astros at home with a fresh bullpen after Michael King went 21 outs last night. Set-up man Jason Adam and closer Robert Suarez are likely unavailable but all middle-relief guys should be good to go.
Cease is paying +155 for Under 17.5 outs, which is almost always a good bet to make at that price for any pitcher. He projects for 17 outs today.
The move: Dylan Cease Under 17.5 outs recorded (+155 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds
The angle: Spencer Schwellenbach is not a long-leashed guy and struggling to get deep.
The Braves have been very fortunate with how Spencer Schwellenbach turned out his year. He has been more than a K/inning pitcher this year but could be wearing down as the career-high in innings is only getting higher.
He has just 11 Ks over his last three starts spanning 16 2/3 innings and is giving up hits at a higher rate. Those three starts have come after a 106-pitch outing that was a season-high. He has also failed to get 18 outs in four of his last six starts over the last 30 days and has a tough matchup today in a hitter's park.
The Braves have lots of arms available in the pen and with Atlanta sitting two games back of the Wild Card, a quick hook could come today. I'd buy this Under 17.5 outs to +110.
The move: Spencer Schwellenbach Under 17.5 outs recorded (+125 at bet365)
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays
The angle: Ryan Pepiot is being handled with care and might not get the volume needed for six strikeouts.
This is another prop that is going against the projections. Ryan Pepiot only went six outs in his last start and it wasn't because of an injury — Tampa is just being careful with their best arm.
He threw only 38 pitches in that start at Cleveland and has now failed to go more than nine outs in two of his last three starts. He has also gotten six Ks in just one of his six starts since returning to the rotation. The last start could be a good indicator of how the Rays want to handle him over his last couple of starts. He is also in career-highs in innings right now so there could be a cap on his workload today.
Boston is a high K% team but its struggles mostly come vs. left-handed pitching, where they lead the league in K% vs. southpaws. Pepiot could go 50 pitches and three Ks today. There's a reason he has no outs market.
The move: Ryan Pepiot Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
The angle: Sonny Gray's short leash and form are giving value to his plus-money hits market.
Sonny Gray is an efficient pitcher who can throw under 90 pitches in a good start. He has allowed just nine hits over his last three starts that have spanned 19 total innings. He threw 91, 99, and 90 pitches in those games and projects for around 90 pitches today.
He'll get a Pirates team that has the sixth-worst AVG vs. right-handed pitching on the year and is a Bottom-6 offense over the last 30 days. The Cards have lots of arms today and Gray's Under 4.5 hits allowed is a decent +128 and a number I'd play to +110. THE BAT is projecting 4.75 hits allowed, which puts this at a near-coinflip at plus-money odds.
Gray has also been elite at home this year with a 2.56 ERA compared to a 5.20 ERA on the road. His H/9 at Busch Stadium is also 6.43 compared to 8.67 H/9 on the road. He is 9-4 to the Under on this total across his last 13 starts at home.
The move: Sonny Gray Under 4.5 hits allowed (+128 at bet365)
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