Today's Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Saturday, May 31

Two scorching-hot offenses are set to collide in the desert, and Rohit Ponnaiya anticipates an early slugfest at the notoriously hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 31, 2025 • 12:17 ET • 4 min read
James Wood Washington Nationals MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood (right) celebrates with Nathaniel Lowe after hitting a solo home run.

The Washington Nationals have been on fire at the dish, and they'll face a formidable Arizona Diamondbacks lineup today. 

With both teams sending vulnerable starters to the hill, my MLB picks are betting on a run to be scored in the first inning.

Check out my best YRFI and NRFI bets for Saturday, May 31.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

  • Cardinals @ Rangers Run in the first inning – YES
  • White Sox @ Orioles Run in the first inning – YES
  • Nationals @ Diamondbacks Run in the first inning – YES

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NRFI/YRFI bets for May 31

Cardinals at Rangers: YRFI  (+100 at ProphetX)

The St. Louis Cardinals are second in the majors in batting average (.262) while ranking eighth in runs per game (4.74). The Texas Rangers are just 26th in slugging percentage (.360), but their expected slugging percentage of .421 suggests we'll see positive regression. 

Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has pitched to a 4.06 ERA with an OBA of .250 through 11 starts. His ERA sits at a whopping 7.36 in the first inning.

Texas responds with Patrick Corbin, who has been one of the worst full-time starters in the majors over the last few years, logging a 5.71 ERA in 126 starts from 2021 to 2024. His numbers are much better this year (3.75 ERA in nine starts), but his expected ERA is still at 4.45.  

White Sox at Orioles: YRFI  (-113 at ProphetX)

The Baltimore Orioles' offense has struggled for two reasons: their inability to hit lefties and their tendency to strike out. However, they're at home against Chicago White Sox righty Davis Martin today, and he sits in the bottom 10th percentile in strikeout rate. 

Martin is also in the bottom 10th percentile in expected batting average (.304) and the bottom 15th percentile in xERA (5.28). He'll get rocked by an O's lineup that ranks fourth in hard-hit rate and 10th in barrel rate — especially with 16 mph winds blowing towards the outfield today.

Baltimore will have struggling righty Dean Kremer (5.02 ERA through 11 starts) on the hill. Kremer has an ERA of 5.73 with an OBA of .311 in the first inning, while the White Sox plate a run in the first inning at the sixth-highest rate (35.1%) in the majors.

Nationals at Diamondbacks: YRFI  (-121 at ProphetX)

The Arizona Diamondbacks will give the pill to Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 3.97 ERA and has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball. His xERA (6.39) and xBA (.315) are among the worst numbers in the majors, and he faces a red-hot Washington Nationals lineup today.

Washington is second in the majors in OPS (.804) while averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. The Nats are sending Michael Soroka and his 5.61 ERA to the mound. 

He'll have a tough time navigating a D-Backs lineup that is fourth in the majors in OPS (.777) and run first-inning rate (36.8%).

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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