Gerrit Cole will take the hill Thursday as he looks to lead the New York Yankees to a series victory over a cold Houston Astros team.
Cole has limited barrels extremely well of late, and should make life very difficult on Houston's offense.
That's a key reason I'm backing the home team with my Astros vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 27.
Who will win Astros vs Yankees today: New York Yankees (-160)
The Houston Astros are not in a great place offensively, sitting 29th in wOBA and xwOBA against righties the past three weeks.
It’ll be difficult to flip the switch against Gerrit Cole, who has pitched to a 3.17 xFIP his last five starts while allowing a 2.5% barrel rate.
Hayden Wesneski is a much more vulnerable target. His xFIP sits at just under 4.5 despite facing five non playoff teams, four of which rank 24th or worse in scoring.
The New York Yankees hit for a lot more power, and should provide Cole support.
Play to -175.
COVERS INTEL: Cole has held opponents to two barrels over the past 30.2 innings of work, making it difficult to generate any sort of quick strike offense
Astros vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-116)
The best way to produce offense in bulk is power, and the Astros are lacking it right now.
They sit 20th in OPS when facing right-handed pitchers in August, and Cole’s elite barrel suppression isn’t going to help matters.
Cole has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine, including against high-end offenses like the Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs. It’ll be really hard for Houston to produce.
While the Yankees could cause problems for Wesneski, he’s backed by a bullpen sitting sixth in WHIP and fifth in xFIP this month.
Play the Under to -130.
Astros vs Yankees home run prediction: Luis Garcia Jr. (+305)
Luis Garcia Jr. has left the park in three of the past four games, and he’s in a good spot to extend his heater Thursday night.
He owns ISOs of .260 or higher against each of the four pitches Wesneski uses at least 10% of the time against left-handed hitters.
That includes a whopping .667 ISO against the sweeper, which Wesneski throws at more than a 30% clip.
Garcia has a 31.2% barrel rate against the fastball-sweeper combination, and will not be kind to Wesneski if he fails to locate one in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Play down to +295.
- ML/RL bets: 91-83, -10.65 units
- Over/Under bets: 87-81-6, -5.80 units
Astros vs Yankees weather
Temperatures are expected to hover in the mid 70s with winds blowing west.
Astros vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Astros +140 | Yankees -160
- Run line: Astros +1.5 (-150) | Yankees -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125)
Astros vs Yankees trend
New York owns a 56-73 O/U record this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees.
How to watch Astros vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Thursday, August 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, YES |
| Astros starting pitcher | Hayden Wesneski (3-1, 4.23 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (7-6, 3.11 ERA) |
Astros vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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