The New York Yankees took the series opener 4-3 last night vs. the Houston Astros, but now the visitors have shortened up on the MLB odds moneyline (-150) as they send Hunter Brown to the mound to oppose Luis Severino with possible rain in the forecast.
With the weather, matchup, and his recent form, Severino’s Under props are projecting well, and they are ones where bettors could find multiple outs for a winner.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Yankees for Friday, August 4.
Astros vs Yankees odds
Astros vs Yankees predictions
With rain heavily forecasted for tonight, it’s hard to back any Overs. And with that rain likely moving in after the match's start, pitching Unders looks like the best value.
Luis Severino has not had more than five strikeouts in six straight starts and has been getting crushed, as opposing batters are slashing .410/.456/.733 vs. him since the beginning of July (five starts). That includes games vs. soft offenses like the Royals, Angels, and Cards. The Orioles just blasted him for nine earned runs over 10 outs five days ago.
Now the struggling righty has to face one of the best lineups in baseball in the Astros, and might not get in a full outing with the projected rain. That precipitation also won’t help with his already poor command — note his 50/24 K:BB ratio over 57-plus innings.
It might be heavily juiced, but Severino’s Under 5.5 strikeouts at -160 is the best play tonight. Some books have already moved to 4.5 at the time of writing, or as short as -190.
Clarke Schmidt struggled to get to his 5.5 total last night. Considering the form, weather, and matchup, Severino will be in an even tougher spot tonight in the Bronx.
My best bet: Luis Severino Under 5.5 strikeouts (-160)
Astros vs Yankees same-game parlay
Stanton Over 0.5 home runs
Altuve Over 0.5 home runs
With the winds blowing out and a pair of home-run pitchers starting, tonight's matchup is a good one to find a decent two-player home run parlay for good odds. Both Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Altuve project as the best +EV HR bets at bet365, with Stanton projected for 0.27 long balls and Altuve at 0.19.
Stanton got into one last night that went well over 400 feet, while Altuve quietly has a 0.862 OPS with a HR per every 24.7 plate appearances. Both Hunter Brown and Severino have struggled with home runs of late, and with the uncertainty of the weather, it's always better to go big with the odds when the variance is high. I recommend sprinkling .15 units on this longshot play.
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Astros vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Astros were a very public side yesterday at -110 but took the defeat, as a single bad inning from Cristian Javier sunk the visitors, 4-3. Now the Astros sit as -150 road favorites after opening at -140. The move is warranted based on how bad Luis Severino has been (11.00-plus ERA over his last five starts), but Hunter Brown has been inconsistent too with a 5.20 ERA over his last 10 starts.
The Yankees’ offense has been vanilla all year and despite Aaron Judge being back, the loss of Anthony Rizzo doesn’t help and the Astros have a big offensive advantage.
However, playing any full-game line tonight is tricky as late rain could cause a delay. There is a very solid chance of rain, but the heavy stuff could miss to the west, per Kevin Roth for Rotogrinders. There is a lot of uncertainty in betting a side or any Overs, as it would be a shame for either starter to hit the bench due to weather.
If the forecast were clear, I’d love to hit the Over 2.5 earned runs on Luis Severino at -140. He has given up a staggering 27 runs over his last five starts and has been done in by the long ball — serving up seven over that stretch. Unfortunately, the Yankees have a strong bullpen and would likely turn to it if there were a delay, as Severino is a short-leashed pitcher.
The total opened at 9 and has moved five points to the Over. But as we saw last night, even with early scoring, both of these bullpens can shut it down. Only two runs were scored over the final 7.5 innings on Thursday. The 10-mph winds blowing out to left field are nice vs. some home run-friendly pitchers, but it will mean nothing if that rain interrupts the game.
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Trend to know
The Houston Astros have hit the First Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 79 games (+6.60 Units / 6% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees
Astros vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, August 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Hunter Brown (7-7, 4.12 ERA): Brown is making his 21st start and is coming off back-to-back quality starts. He carries a 126/37 K:BB rate over 111-plus innings with 13 home runs, but also owns a 5.20 ERA over his last 10 starts where batters are posting a .798 OPS. The Astros are 11-9 SU when he starts, and THE BAT projects 91 pitches, 15.1 outs, 5.40 strikeouts, and 2.83 earned runs.
Luis Severino (2-5, 7.49 ERA): Severino has struggled over his 12 starts this year and has a 50/24 K:BB rate over 57-plus innings with a hefty 15 home runs allowed. He’s given up seven long balls over his last 21 innings, where opposing batters have a 1.189 OPS, and Severino has an 11.22 ERA. The Yankees are 5-7 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 92 pitches, 16.4 outs, 4.74 strikeouts, and 3.06 earned runs.
