The New York Yankees will look to continue rolling with a third win in four games as the Texas Rangers visit the Bronx.
However, my Rangers vs. Yankees predictions see value lying with the team from the Lonestar State.
I break it all down with my MLB picks for this matchup on Monday, May 20 with the first pitch slated for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Rangers vs Yankees prediction
My Rangers vs Yankees best bet: Patrick Corbin to record the win (+320 at bet365)
I don't know what Patrick Corbin has done this season to warrant being a massive underdog to New York Yankees pitcher Will Warren. Beyond a narrative created based on years past of being everyone's favorite fade, what is there to base it on?
This closing number is likely Warren's highest number in a start this season. That includes two starts, including two surefire non-playoff teams, when he faced the A's in a win and the Pittsburgh Pirates in a loss.
Now he faces a Texas Rangers team with playoff talent against a pitcher who has had a better season than he has, and we're getting this number? I'm not buying it and using the historic Corbin bias to my advantage as much as possible, but instead grabbing the lefty to win. I made the price around +188 — a significant edge.
We've documented this season one of the Yankees' few offensive Achilles heels: the slider.
Aaron Judge hits it well, and Paul Goldschmidt hits it great, but the rest of the lineup struggles against it outside of that.
Let me rephrase that: the rest of the lineup is batting less than .200 against it, with expected batting averages that aren't much better.
To no surprise, they excel mostly in hitting the pitch hard, but Corbin, perhaps shockingly, has ranked in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate this season — a 15% improvement on his 46% rank last year.
He's used that slider a ton, holding opponents to a .216 batting average and a .275 slugging percentage. Numbers you wouldn't exactly associate with the Corbin reputation. He can lean on it today to get a quality start and keep his team in the game long enough to eventually leave with the lead. And that's because of Warren.
I've faded him a few times this season with mixed results because of some underlying metrics. When he's not getting a ton of strikeouts, he's headed for trouble. The Rangers aren't an ideal candidate to drive up your strikeout total against.
Texas ranks ninth in strikeouts per game while also being in the Bottom 10 in whiff and chase rates.
The Yankees are coming off an emotional series win against the Mets, which could lead to a letdown. Meanwhile, Corbin's 2025 performance shows he's not the fade he once was. The market's pricing seems anchored to his past rather than his current form, creating an opportunity to capitalize on the discrepancy.
This may look foolish, and Corbin may revert to old habits, but the +320 price is a bet on this season's data, not outdated narratives. Corbin's improved slider, hard-hit prevention, and Warren's struggles against disciplined, power-hitting teams make the Rangers a live underdog. This is a value play worth taking.
Rangers vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Patrick Corbin to record the win
Josh Smith Over 1.5 total bases
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 total bases
We've got a tasty one for this same-game parlay.
Josh Smith ranks first in hard-hit rank among Rangers against the fastball and second against the sweeper. These are Warren's primary two pitches by a landslide, making it quite appealing to drive in an extra-base hit.
Lastly, we finish with a play on the aforementioned Goldschmidt. He has tremendous slash numbers against Corbin's heavily documented slider pitch, and we expect him to take advantage of that here.
Rangers vs Yankees odds
Rangers vs Yankees live odds
Rangers vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +150 | New York -180
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-125) | New York -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Rangers vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.97 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rangers vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, 5-20-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSN, YES |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Patrick Corbin (3-2, 3.35 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (2-2, 4.61 ERA) |
Rangers vs Yankees latest injuries
Rangers vs Yankees weather
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