There is a lot of wind and some rain in the forecast today, as well as some questionable leashes. There aren’t any shortages of pitcher edges and angles, and I've found the best three
These are my three favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, May 20.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 20
Strider u1.5 walks allowed (+100)
Luzardo to record the win (-105)
Fedde o4.5 strikeouts (-105)
Today's SP best bets
Braves vs. Nationals
The angle: Strider is making his first start since a hamstring injury and might not see more than 70 pitches
The move: Spencer Strider Under 1.5 walks allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
Spencer Strider got one start this season before suffering a hamstring injury that landed him on the IL. He didn't pitch in a rehab game but threw 65 pitches in a simulated game. His velocity was down in that session, and the range of pitch counts today has 80 at the ceiling.
THE BAT is projecting 74 pitches, which is why all of his volume markets have been getting bet to the Under. His Under 5.5 Ks projects well at -130 or better and his Under 1.5 earned runs have already moved from -105 to -135. His Over 3.5 hits might be a good look at plus money but the leash is a little worrisome.
I’m going with the Under walks as THE BAT is projecting just 1.35. Hopefully, he has a 70-pitch limit or 12 outs. There's not a lot of need to push him here after his lost 2024 season and an early lower-body injury to begin 2025.
Phillies vs. Rockies
The angle: The Rockies are that bad
The move: Jesus Luzardo to record the win (-105 at DraftKings)
I don’t care about opposing pitchers in Coors Field. This Rockies team is so bad the small edge they might have at home means nothing to me. If anything, it’s giving us a better price on pitcher props.
The Phillies are -300 to win this game, yet Jesus Luzardo, who gets deep, is almost even money to record the win. This is -125 at bet365 as shopping around with pitcher-win markets is always a great practice.
Luzardo has gone 100+ pitches in three of his last four starts, and the Phillies are 7-2 SU when he starts. Tony Senzatela has seven losses on his record over nine starts.
This is a market I will continue to look at every day vs. the Rockies, who are 8-39 SU with a -150 run differential. For comparison, the White Sox are 14-34 SU with a -50 run differential. This team is historically bad.
Tigers vs. Cardinals
The angle: Fedde doesn't have to strike out a batter per inning with his leash
The move: Erik Fedde Over 4.5 strikeouts (-105 at BetMGM)
Erik Fedde gets deep and projects for almost 18 outs today on 96 pitches. Over his last four starts, he has thrown 103, 101, 109, and 93 pitches. He will get a chance today to get deep vs. a Detroit lineup that strikes out at a Top-10 rate.
Fedde is not a K/inning guy, but just five cents for five or more Ks when 18 outs are in the cards is a good spot in a home start where he might have to miss some bats with double-digit winds blowing out to right field.
His K-rate is at a four-year low right now, showing a chance for regression to more punchouts. Excluding his first start of the season, Fedde has hit at least four Ks in each of his home starts. He might not get eight, but he is flirting with this number because of his leash.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
