The Houston Astros were originally scheduled to open their weekend series in Boston against Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet.
The ace was scratched due to shoulder inflammation, and, instead, Houston is expected to see minor league call-up Jake Bennett, who will make his MLB debut.
The Red Sox didn’t need any more adversity this week, but the Crochet injury provided some. That’s why my Astros at Red Sox predictions and MLB picks call for an Astros road win on Friday, May 1.
Who will win Astros vs Red Sox today: Astros moneyline (+108)
Both teams had high expectations but are in last place. The Boston Red Sox appear to be starting over after firing the manager and five coaches last weekend.
The Red Sox return home on a two-game skid under the new skipper, scoring a total of one run in the last two games. The Sox are just 5-8 at home, however.
Meanwhile, the Houston Astros just completed a tough portion of the schedule with series against two first-place teams and another winning one.
Yordan Alvarez leads this Houston offense and he leads the AL in all three Triple Crown categories as he just finished a 13-game hitting streak.
COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox are hitting just .211 with .603 OPS at home, compared to .245, .698 on the road. Houston hits 41 points higher in road games.
Astros vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
Jake Bennett is clearly a downgrade from Crochet, but he had two wins and a 0.86 ERA at Triple-A in the first month of the season as is familiar to Chad Tracy, who was managing that club before last weekend’s changes.
The Astros will start Mike Burrows, who has struggled this season against everyone but Boston. He beat the Sox, striking out six in five innings a month ago.
Since then, Houston has lost all four of his starts as he’s posted a 6.43 ERA with 1.619 WHIP. He was solid against the Yankees last time out, and the reeling Red Sox offense should keep him on track and keep the score manageable.
- ML/RL bets: 10-9 +1.48 units
- Over/Under bets: 11-12 -1.43 units
Astros vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Houston +105 | Boston -121
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+158) | Boston +1.5 (-183)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+109) | Under 9.5 (-121)
Astros vs Red Sox trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Astros vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Friday, May 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Space City Home Network, NESN |
| Astros starting pitcher | Mike Burrows (1-3, 6.25 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Jake Bennett (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Astros vs Red Sox latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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