Another Sunday, another great Sunday Night Baseball matchup. This time it will feature the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, who will wrap up a three-game series.
The start of these decorated teams' seasons has been slightly underwhelming. Both are in unfamiliar territory looking above them in the division. Still, the baseball season is young, and both teams are capable of remedying that quickly. Tonight the Astros will be looking to avoid a sweep against this surging Dodgers team which has won the first two games of this series by a single run.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Dodgers on Sunday, June 25.
Astros vs Dodgers odds
Astros vs Dodgers predictions
Tonight features an ideal pitching matchup for these Dodgers hitters, and we will target that in the simplest way possible. Our best bet tonight? Hunter Brown, who will take the mound for the Astros, under 17.5 outs.
There are some direct correlations to Brown's worst starts of the season. One of the most direct comparisons to the Dodgers was his start against the Atlanta Braves. In that matchup back in April, he lasted just over three innings and gave up four earned runs.
Brown was stressed from the jump in that game, and something similar could occur today. That's because the Braves and the Dodgers are the only two teams in baseball ranking in the Top 5 of both barrel and hard-hit rates. It shouldn't be a surprise that these are the two areas where Brown struggles, ranking in the Bottom 20% in the league in both metrics.
There are a few other things that make you think the Dodgers should also limit Brown's length. One of those things is that Brown is a highly ground ball-reliant pitcher with a rate above 55%. The Dodgers don't hit many ground balls; in fact, they hit the fewest in baseball. Because of this, they've had some success against prevalent ground-ball pitchers. This can be repeated today.
The last angle that makes me a fan of this play is where Brown locates his pitches. While he doesn't get a crazy amount of chases, he is the type of pitcher that lives on the edges, with nearly 55% of his pitches being thrown in the shadow part of the plate. That should benefit these Dodgers hitters.
L.A. has a lineup comprised of some of the best eyes in baseball. This is backed up by its chase rate being the second-lowest in baseball, while its swing rate is the lowest in baseball, and its drawing the most walks in the game. I'll be looking for Brown's slightly below-average walk rate to be an issue today and drive up his pitch count.
Brown has exceeded this number in exactly half of his starts this season, but outside a few early ones, he's rarely shown he can do it against big-time bats. The previous game against the Braves comes to mind, but so do four-inning showings against the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins. That's why I feel good about fading him tonight.
My best bet: Brown Under 17.5 outs (-110)
Astros vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Brown Under 17.5 outs
Both Teams to Score 4+ runs
Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 hits
We've added our best bet to the same-game parlay tonight and have gotten creative with the other two legs to maximize our payout.
It should be a similar high-scoring affair that we saw last night. You know why this is a bad matchup for Brown, but it's not an easy one for Tony Gonsolin either. He has one of the worst expected batting averages among starting pitchers in the league, and that's a problem when facing the Astros, even though Houston has underperformed throughout the season. Over the last three games, its offense has clicked more, and it has a Top 10 BABIP over that span. Given what we know historically about their hitters, you'd expect that to improve.
We're rounding this out with Miguel Vargas to go hitless. He's been in a significant slump over the last seven games, with just one hit in 17 at-bats. Although I expect Brown to have his issues tonight, I don't suspect that will be against Vargas, as he is an excellent swing-and-miss candidate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Astros vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I lean toward the Dodgers on the moneyline here but hesitate to trust Gonsolin on the mound.
A significant part of Gonsolin's issues has been that he cannot create enough swings and misses. His whiff rate, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage are below league average, with some aspects worse than others. The Astros have a talented lineup that will surely take advantage of that.
Still, it's tough to look past the historical dominance recently from the Dodgers. The Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 meetings against the Dodgers. Even worse than that, they've won just one of the previous five games in L.A. If forced to make a bet, I'd grab the Dodgers, but I'm staying away.
By now, you can probably guess that I'm a fan of the Over. We saw fireworks between these two teams last night, and I'd expect them again. Both pitchers have flaws that each team is well poised to attack. For the Dodgers, it's that they can put the ball in the air at a higher rate than anyone in baseball. For the Astros, it's simply that their lineup is filled with talented hitters and no real easy outs.
The Over is 5-1 in the Dodgers' last six home games, and the Over is 5-2 in the Astros' previous seven games. I'm expecting both trends to continue in this contest.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Dodgers' last six home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Dodgers
Astros vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 25, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Hunter Brown (6-4, 3.78 ERA): Brown has been one of baseball's best ground-ball pitchers all season. His induced ground balls at the insane clip of 56% is a number that's actually down from a season ago. The metrics aside from that are a bit concerning. Among them is a hard hit in the Bottom 20% of baseball. This has given him issues against power lineups such as the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels, and Minnesota Twins. He comes into this game off a five-inning appearance against the New York Mets, where he allowed six earned runs in five innings.
Tony Gonsolin (4-2, 2.92 ERA): Gonsolin is quite fortunate to have the ERA he does, as his metrics from this season aren't someone you'd suggest has one below 3.00. For starters, the expected ERA sets above 4.00, which means there's looming regression to come. Beyond that, though, there's everything else. Like a K rate near the bottom of the league, a whiff rate that follows similarly, and an expected batting average that sets below the league's expected average. With all that in mind, you expect Gonsolin to see some struggles during the backstretch of the season. We caught a giant glimpse of that in his last start against the San Francisco Giants, where he allowed seven earned runs.
