The Los Angeles Angels evened up their three-game series with AL West leaders the Houston Astros on Saturday. The 2-1 victory came in the bottom of the 12th on a walk-off single by Matt Duffy.
It was the second consecutive game to hit the Under but don’t bet on that happening three times in a row. The Angels are sending Tucker Davidson to the mound while the Astros counter with Jose Urquidy. Both pitchers have ERAs over 3.00.
Can the starters keep the score low or will it be a run fest? And who’s taking the deciding game on Sunday afternoon? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Astros vs. Angels on September 4.
Astros vs Angels odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Astros opened at -179 but came down quickly to anywhere from -154 to -167. The Angels also went lower, starting at +155 and going anywhere from +139 to +145. The total began at 10 and dipped to 9.5 with the Over and Under at -105.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Angels predictions
Picks made on 9/4/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Angels game info
• Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Sunday, September 4, 2022
• First pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports California, AT&T Sportsnet
Astros vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Urquidy (12-5, 3.69 ERA): The 27-year-old right-hander might be auditioning for a spot in the rotation on Sunday. The team is using a six-man rotation at the moment and there is a possibility someone might be moving to the bullpen. Urquidy hasn’t pitched that poorly recently. He has three wins in his last five starts. In those five outings, he has allowed 11 runs and 22 hits in 31 2-3 innings. He has, however, given up six home runs as well.
Tucker Davidson (1-2, 5.21 ERA): The 26-year-old lefty has had mixed results since coming over in a trade with the Atlanta Braves. He has pitched four games with the Angels and had one win, two losses, and a no-decision. In his Angels debut a month ago, he allowed six runs on six hits in four innings. In his last three games, however, he has given up five runs on 13 hits and struck out 10.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Astros are 7-1 in their last eight against a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Angels
Astros vs Angels picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The previous two games in this three-game series have been close affairs but Sunday’s finale should show why first-place Houston is 27 games better than the Angels.
This game should come down to the starting pitchers, with the Astros sending out Jose Urquidy. The right-hander lost his last game out, allowing three runs and four hits in five innings to the Baltimore Orioles.
Urquidy, however, has victories in three of his other four games in August. In those games, he allowed eight runs and 18 hits in 26 2-3 innings. He also recorded 24 strikeouts.
The 27-year-old has faced the Angels twice this season and got victories in both games. The first was April 10 and Urquidy surrendered just one run on four hits through five innings. The second game was July 2 and again he gave up just one run. This time he allowed only two hits in six innings.
The Angels are countering with recently acquired Tucker Davidson. Davidson spent the majority of his time this year in the Braves Triple-A organization. He has had issues with control but is ranked the 11th-best prospect by MLB Pipeline.
The former Atlanta Brave has had four appearances for the Angels. The 26-year-old’s most recent start was a week ago against the Toronto Blue Jays. He allowed just one run on three hits in four innings but did not get a decision.
In his other three outings in August, he was 1-2, allowing 10 runs on 16 hits through 15 innings.
The control issues seem to have subsided for now but Houston’s bats will be a big test. The Astros are 10th in RBI and ninth in runs, as well as 11th in on-base percentage. They are also fifth in home runs and Davidson has given up a dinger in three of his last four games.
Houston is 4-1 in their last five road games and 7-1 in their last eight against a team with a losing record. They are also 6-1 in their last seven against a left-hander.
Prediction: Astros -1.5 (-104 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
Though the Under has hit the previous two games, don’t be lulled into thinking it will be three in a row. These two teams should be able to take advantage of the starting pitching and put some runs up on the scoreboard.
Houston’s Jose Urquidy has a 3.69 ERA, while Los Angeles starter Tucker Davidson has a 5.77 ERA. If those two allow those ERAs, the Over of 9.5 is definitely in play.
The Astros are averaging 4.4 runs a game with the Angels averaging 3.8 runs. The trends, however, favor the Over. The Astros have hit the Over three of four times when the total was set between 9 and 10.5.
The Angels have hit the Over four of their last five games against opponents in the AL West.
Another possible contributing factor will be the weather. It is expected to be 101 degrees at game time and the balls could be flying off the bats with the extreme heat.
Prediction: Over 9.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The total for the first five innings is 5. Though the Over will ultimately hit in the game, I believe it will take the teams a while to start scoring runs, especially off Tucker Davidson.
The Astros have not seen Davidson and it will probably take a second at-bat to get familiar with his pitching style. Davidson relies on a four-seam fastball that is in the low-90s. He also employs a slider and a curve.
Urquidy has been extremely effective against the Angels. He has faced them twice and allowed one run in each appearance.
If Davidson can keep it together for four innings, the Under should hit. It is encouraging that he has only allowed one run in his last outing against Toronto.
Pick: First five innings Under 5 (-125 at DraftKings)
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