MLB All-Star Game 2023 Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bats Come Out to Play

For my money, the Midsummer Classic is still the best All-Star game in all of sports, and this summer the MLB’s showcase of its top talent will head west to T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

And not only is the MLB All-Star Game a great exhibition of the best players in the game, but it’s basically the only game in town this week when it comes to sports betting options. So, you know we’ve got to have some wagers on it.

The American League, led by Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani, has won an incredible nine consecutive matchups vs. the National League and the MLB odds have them as the betting favorite to make it a perfect 10 in a row on Tuesday night.

But that’s not the only betting trend going on in the All-Star Game. I break down the odds for the Midsummer Classic and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in our free MLB picks and predictions for the 2023 MLB All-Star Game. Be sure to also check out my three favorite MLB All-Star Game player prop picks!

MLB All-Star Game 2023 odds

MLB All-Star Game 2023 predictions

The American League has dominated the National League game for a while now, with the Junior Circuit winning the Midsummer Classic nine straight times and going 21-3-1 in the last 25.

That’s a pretty stunning number considering the talent in the game should make the matchup close to a coin flip every year. But that’s not the only crazy trend going, heading into this year’s matchup at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. 

The Under is also an incredible 13-3 in the last 16 All-Star games and there has been an average of just 6.75 total runs scored per game over that stretch. It appears the old baseball adage holds true, perhaps especially in the All-Star Game: “Great pitching beats great hitting.”

So, it’s fair to say pitchers have had the edge in the Midsummer Classic in recent years. But it seems oddsmakers and baseball bettors are aware of this trend. The total for last year’s All-Star game closed at 7.5 and that’s where this year’s opened. But thankfully for the fans, I think we might see a little more scoring this year.

For starters, the new rules in baseball seem to be working. Scoring is up this year at 4.57 runs per team per game. It’s the third-highest scoring average since 2010 and people are stealing bases at the highest rate since 1997.

Next, there is some incredible offensive talent in this game, particularly in the National League. The senior circuit can trot out some combination of the betting favorite to win the NL MVP in Ronald Acuna, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, super-rookie Corbin Carroll, and hitting machine Luis Arraez, just to name a few.

The NL also has a ton of great sluggers ready to come off the bench including Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and Jorge Soler.

The American League lineup is a little more interesting. They will be missing the pop of Aaron Judge and Mike Trout (don’t be surprised if Dusty Baker gives hometown hero Julio Rodriguez one of those starting outfield spots), and there may be more talent on the AL’s bench than in the starting lineup.

That starting lineup is filled with Texas Rangers, who have been great offensively this season two of them are making their first All-Star start. Luckily, the likes of MLB home run leader and AL MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani and Tampa Bay Rays OF Randy Arozarena will balance things out.

But as I said, their bench looks like the Jr. Circuit’s real strength. Home run derby champ Vladimir Guerrero Jr., his teammate, and AL hits leader Bo Bichette, Jose Ramirez, Wander Franco, and Luis Robert Jr. highlight this group. If you said they were starters no one would bat an eye.

The other thing to like about the AL is the NL pitching staff they get to work against. The National League will be without arguably its three best starters in Spencer Strider, Clayton Kershaw, and Marcus Stroman. While the replacements of Corbin Burnes, Alex Cobb, and Kodai Senga are fine, they don’t exactly scream dominance.

However, it’s a similar story for the AL. Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez, and Kevin Gausman have been the three best pitchers in the league and none will pitch in Tuesday’s game. On top of that, it sounds like Ohtani will be unavailable as a pitcher in this game. 

The AL staff looks a little more well-equipped to deal with those losses but those are some tough arms to replace.

I think we are getting a total of 7.5 due to all the Unders we have seen in the All-Star game of late. But considering the potency of the respective lineups and the unavailable pitchers, it feels a touch low and is giving us a little edge on the Over. Getting plus money puts that edge over the top. Let’s buck the trend and finally get some runs in the All-Star game.

My best bet: Over 7.5 (+105 at bet365)

MLB All-Star Game 2023 same-game parlay

Over 7 (-122)

Luis Arraez to hit a single (+118)

Freddie Freeman to record a hit (-165)

Randy Arozarena to record a hit (-135)

+665 at FanDuel

There’s nothing like an All-Star game same-game parlay. Our SGP for the Midsummer Classic of course starts with Over 7 runs. But how do you get runs? With hits of course. 

And nobody has more hits this season than Arraez. The Miami Marlins second baseman is a hitting machine who leads the MLB with 126 hits and is making a run at the magic number of a .400 batting average. But Arraez is making soft contact cool again. He ranks in the Bottom 2% in hard-hit percentage, and the overwhelming amount of his hits are singles. So, let’s add Arraez to get a single.

Let’s add another NL guy to grab a hit. How about the seven-time All-Star and former MVP Freeman? The Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman is having another elite season hitting .320 with a .952 OPS. He also ranks in the 99th percentile in expected batting average and the 98th percentile in expected slugging percentage. So, throw him in to get a hit.

We’ve got to give the AL some love too. And who better to look at than Arozarena? The Tampa Bay Rays outfielder always seems to shine when the spotlight is brightest. Arozarena came up just a couple dingers short of winning the home run derby so you know the swing is in order. So, close this SGP out with him to get a hit as well for a +739 payday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

MLB All-Star Game 2023 moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The American League opened this Midsummer Classic as -115 favorites and have moved slightly to -120 as of Monday night. The AL is the home team with the game being played in Seattle, and with the like of Luis Castillo, Nathan Eovaldi, and Sonny Gray ready to follow Cole, you can make the case they have the slightly better pitching staff. The AL is also a stunning 21-3-1 in the last 25 All-Star games. 

These are all contributing factors as to why they are favorites this time around. That being said, I feel like the NL has the better starting lineup and has a chance to get out to an early lead in this one. I have a slight lead toward the NL snapping their skid at even money or better.

As noted above, the total sits at 7.5 heading into Tuesday and the Under is definitely seeing some of the money with it getting juiced to -120 at some shops. But I still believe the Over is being undervalued because of the crazy run on Unders in the All-Star game. 

Trend to know

The Under is 16-3 in the last 19 MLB All-Star games. The AL is 21-3-1 in the last 25 All-Star games. Find more MLB betting trends for National League All-Stars vs. American League All-Stars

MLB All-Star Game 2023 info

Starting pitchers

Zac Gallen (11-3, 3.04 ERA): Gallen earns his first All-Star Game start thanks to leading the National League in FIP (2.77) and WHIP (1.048) and is third in strikeout-to-walk rate (5.43). And he heads into the break as the betting favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award.

Gerrit Cole (9-2, 2.85 ERA): Cole is now a six-time All-Star and despite 2023 not being his best season overall, he’s earned his first career All-Star Game start. He ranks in the Top 5 in the American League in wins, ERA, and innings pitched, and the Top 10 in strikeouts and FIP.

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