The USA has about a coin flip’s chance of progressing to the quarterfinal of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and tying its deepest run since the first competition in 1930.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Americans have +110 odds (47.6% implied chance) of finishing in the top eight in the World Cup.
Key Takeaways
- The USA made the quarterfinal one time since 1930.
- Projected matchups would likely favor the USA in the Round of 32 and the Round of 16.
- Only five teams have a better chance to make the quarterfinal than the USA.
The USA’s World Cup odds are from the build-up to their third and final match in the Group Stage against Türkiye. Regardless of that result, they will advance to the knockout as the Group D winner on a minimum of six points, following victories over Paraguay (4-1) and Australia (2-0).
The co-host nation’s impressive performances have garnered belief from sportsbooks and bettors alike. FanDuel’s latest odds update is a testament to how much ground they made up in a short time.
According to FanDuel, the Red, White, and Blue’s +110 odds to reach the quarterfinals are the sixth-best of all contending teams. Only Argentina (-240), France (-175), England (-170), Spain (-145), and Portugal (-110) are ahead in odds.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands (+120), Brazil (+130), Germany (+160), Norway (+200), and Morocco (+210) are all looking up at the USA in odds to make the quarterfinals.
Taking it a step further, FanDuel gave the USA +440 odds (18.5% chance) of reaching the World Cup’s final four, also known as the semifinals. That’s ninth of all teams, and is ahead of Norway and Golden Boot contender Erling Haaland, along with the 2022 World Cup fourth-place finisher, Morocco.
Making the World Cup Final would require the USA to win four straight knockout matches. FanDuel believes there are +1,300 odds (7.1% chance) of that happening, and +3,000 odds of them winning the competition (3.2% chance). Those odds rank 10th and ninth, respectively.
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USA’s potential knockout matchups
The USA finished third at the inaugural 1930 World Cup in Uruguay. They won two matches and lost one in a tournament that featured 13 teams.
The next 92 years only saw the USA make it past the Group Stage five times, and past the Round of 16 once. That occurred in the 2022 iteration of the competition, when they fell to Germany in the quarterfinal, 1-0.
As much as the USA has impressed at the World Cup, their futures odds were positively impacted by their favorable projected path to the later stages of the tournament.
Bosnia-Herzegovina winning on Wednesday meant that they became the USA’s most likely opponent in the Round of 32. Current standings would have them face the winner of Egypt and Czechia in the Round of 16, and Spain, Portugal, Ghana, or Austria in the quarterfinals.
All of those matchups are open to changing based on upcoming results.
World Cup odds and path
Of every possible opponent listed for the USA in the Round of 32 and the Round of 16, none has shorter odds to win the World Cup than the home team. That suggests that the USA would be favored to win their first two knockout matches, regardless of their opponents.
At the top of odds to win the World Cup is France, which shortened to +390. Pre-tournament favorite Spain is at +500, followed by defending champion Argentina.
Based on current standings, the USA could only face one of the top four favorites, Spain, before the World Cup Final.
