Earlier this year, I was watching a discussion panel about, obviously, prediction markets. And during that discussion, the former general counsel for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator of prediction markets, suggested that anyone claiming to know what will happen with the exchanges in the courts had no idea, actually.
I think you could expand that humble line of thinking to the corporate side of prediction markets, because we may not quite comprehend yet where prediction markets may wind up. Your grocery store? Your car? The place where you go to watch cat videos? Surely not!
Well, hold the phone for a minute.
- Meta is reportedly developing an experimental prediction market platform, showing that prediction markets could expand far beyond their current uses and perhaps into major social media ecosystems.
- With growing regulatory acceptance and corporate interest, it is unclear where prediction markets will ultimately appear or how many businesses may try to adopt them.
- While prediction markets were initially envisioned as forecasting tools, their rapid growth and potential alignment with platforms like Facebook raise questions about unforeseen risks and consequences.
The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg directed a “small team” to develop a prediction market app similar to that of Kalshi and Polymarket. While it’s all very “experimental” at this point, and users would not wager real money (at least not at first), the story gave everyone a good jolt.
This is, of course, the company behind Facebook and Instagram toying with the idea of some prediction markets of its own.
Meta would direct its social network users toward this new app, according to the NYT. Follow-up reporting by NPR also said Meta plans to use artificial intelligence to pilot the prediction market platform, such as by scanning for hot topics and spitting out questions to put to users.
Meta is planning its very own prediction market app, as @MikeIsaac scooped yesterday.
— Bobby Allyn (@BobbyAllyn) June 24, 2026
I got some internal Meta docs that give a little bit more detail on the app and how it plans to use ai from market creation to how markets resolve, etc., all while wagering "play money"…
Interestingly, Meta’s reported prediction market plans aren’t the first time it's kicked tires on such an idea. As the Times noted, the company released an app called “Forecast” in 2020, which was shut down by 2022.
“The app was positioned as a way to share crowdsourced knowledge,” the Times reported. “It used a points system to make predictions about the future.”
This time, however, prediction markets are much more mainstream, albeit hotly contested by state gambling regulators, and with their ultimately legal fate still uncertain. Still, they currently have the backing of the federal government and their chief regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The move from fake to real money could be less painful than it was five years ago.
Prediction markets: the new meta
All of the above is to illustrate the following point: We don’t know where prediction markets are going. Moreover, since the federal regulator right now seems open to letting them pursue a lot of opportunities, it’s not exactly clear where the limit might be for these kinds of businesses.
Legally, we do have some limits, sure - like insider trading and more unsavory markets. But on the business side ... who is forbidden from trying to bolt on or partner with a prediction market? Or to design something similar, separate from their current business?
How many other companies have huge customer databases that they’d like to squeeze more revenue from in some way? Many, probably. There are a lot of businesses generating consumer insights via their transactions that others might find useful.
Meta copied slot machines to addict kids to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction market. Meta’s business model is profiting from addiction—kids, gamblers, & more. Stop it through KOSA & my prediction markets bills. https://t.co/e9tG1X8Fho
— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) June 23, 2026
And, in theory, prediction markets were supposed to be like a new form of forecasting. Whether it be elections, entertainment, or economics, the idea was that people putting down real money on what they believed the outcome of an event would be could prod them to be as precise as possible. More reliable projections would hypothetically ensue.
In practice, following the 2024 presidential election, prediction markets have largely been about people wagering on the outcome of sporting events. That is where the bulk of trading volume comes from right now, anyway.
But the idea of “Facebook Predicts,” or something along those lines, suggests there may be more ground to cover. All social media users, and that is a huge population, could be nudged toward becoming potential prediction market users.
That suggests the funnel for prediction market customer acquisition could be much larger than we might think. It also raises the possibility of, well, trouble. And if anyone claims to know exactly what kind of trouble that might create, they may not know at all.
