Robinhood is taking a new turn, with a new report confirming its prediction markets generated more revenue than its cryptocurrency trading.
Key Takeaways
- Robinhood's prediction markets generated $156 million to crypto trading's $100 million in Q2.
- The company previously routed its prediction markets through leading operator Kalshi.
- Its in-house exchange, Rothera, only began accepting contracts on June 4.
Robinhood launched prediction market contracts in 2024 and a dedicated hub in March 2025. Trades were routed through market leader Kalshi until Rothera went live. Rothera, a joint prediction market venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, has processed $3.5 billion in contracts since launching in June.
During the second quarter of 2026, Robinhood’s prediction operations generated $156 million of the company’s $1.31 billion in total revenue, a 50% increase on the Q1 2026 total of $104 million. The new figure was also easily ahead of the $100 million that was brought in from cryptocurrency trading, which was down 38% from Q2 2025 - a reflection of an industry-wide decline.
Prediction markets contributed to Robinhood's Q2 revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year over year, and ahead of Wall Street estimates of $1.25 billion to $1.28 billion. Diluted earnings per share also soared to $0.62, easily above the estimated $0.41.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account“The business is firing on all cylinders,” said Shiv Verma, Chief Financial Officer of Robinhood. “We delivered record revenues and drove new highs across equity, option, and event contract volumes, as we continue to win market share.”
Rothera powers Robinhood’s prediction market success
Launching Rothera gives Robinhood full control of its prediction market infrastructure while eliminating the need to route trades through Kalshi.
The joint venture acquired a majority stake in MIAXdx in January, assuming control of its Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approval as a Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. The infrastructure was rebranded under the Rothera umbrella, which eventually processed its first trade June 4.
Verma said a full stack of CFTC licenses allows a platform to “control the whole product and engineering, (and) you also control the better economics,”
Bernstein analysts previously projected Robinhood would generate $586 million in prediction market revenue during 2026. Through two quarters, the business has generated $260 million.
Robinhood emerges as Kalshi rival
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour previously downplayed Polymarket as his platform’s top rival, instead naming CME Group, sportsbooks, and Robinhood as his main competitors. The platform’s audience acquisition and profit margin are both expected to increase with operations now in-house under Rothera and with popular events such as the NFL season and midterm elections on the horizon.
Rothera’s exchange processed $2.1 billion in Q2 notional trading volume, fourth among all American competitors. That’s despite only launching June 4, more than two months after Q2 began.
