It’s probably underselling it to say that prediction market trading volume is poised to hit record highs when the National Football League’s regular season gets underway.
In fact, it might be understating it significantly. There are signs already that when New England and Seattle kick off the regular season Sept. 9, trading volumes will explode.
- Prediction market trading is poised to surge during NFL season.
- New exchanges, parlay-style contracts, and aggressive marketing should help drive growth and may not significantly hurt traditional sports betting.
- Legal challenges may remain the biggest threat, with some courts increasingly treating sports event contracts as gambling subject to state laws.
Prediction market data from technology investment firm Paradigm shows sports-related trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has already topped $17 billion in August, with approximately $416 million coming from football.
In August 2025, football-related volume was $205.2 million. That football-related volume then jumped to $2.2 billion in September 2025. In other words, more than 10 times as much volume. A rough, unscientific estimate for this year would therefore put September football-related prediction market volume above $4 billion.
Which, again, is probably underselling it.
A combo-nation of things
Paradigm's sports-related volume data includes both football-only and "sports combo" or "parlay" numbers, which could involve football. Sports combo volume this August is already $5 billion, compared to zero in August 2025.
Combos only began to ramp up for prediction markets late last year, while, Polymarket's combos are still in relatively early days. But the products are now much more ready for prime time, particularly as they enter the NFL market, where parlays are hugely popular.
These are just two prediction market platforms as well. The number of federally regulated exchanges has grown since last football season, including sports-focused ones owned by DraftKings, Novig, and ProphetX.
At the same time, marketing efforts are ramping up.
Aldrin Research, which specializes in prediction markets, noted DraftKings has launched state-specific advertising recently in California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, four massive jurisdictions that either lack state-regulated sports betting or, in Florida's case, a competitive market.
New @DraftKings state-specific ads went live in the past 24 hours across California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, offering new customers $200 after a $5 first trade.
— Aldrin (@AldrinResearch) August 25, 2026
The fine print explicitly mentions “Event Contract Trading is offered by DraftKings Predictions, a CFTC-registered… pic.twitter.com/XQZecNHFeG
Those types of jurisdictions are believed to account for a significant share of prediction market volume.
“We view prediction markets as a very attractive opportunity, incremental to sports betting and iGaming, one which is growing the overall market by capturing new demand,” wrote Peter Jackson, the outgoing CEO of FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment, in a letter to shareholders earlier this month. “We continue to see a limited cannibalization impact on our existing customer base in regulated sportsbook states.”
Indeed, state-regulated sportsbook handle is holding steady, with the American Gaming Association reporting this past week that wagering was up 7.8% in the second quarter, to $38.8 billion. Revenue, however, declined 0.2% to $3.9 billion, marking the first decline outside the pandemic era and reflecting a lower hold.
"NFL kickoff is next," DraftKings CEO Jason Robins noted in a letter to shareholders earlier this month. “We continue to enhance our Super App ahead of football season, which will deliver a sports experience that no other operator can match: a top-rated Sportsbook offering and a fully vertically integrated Predictions offering."
Robins said that more than half of DraftKings' prediction market customers had dabbled in combos, which were already nearing 20% of the company's consumer volume.
"As a result of strong acquisition, retention, and engagement, we are seeing rapid volume growth," Robins added, pointing to annualized total volume from $2.3 billion in April to $11 billion in July.
Probably can't overstate how the NFL regular season is gonna be a massive catalyst for prediction market volume.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) August 28, 2026
Just look at two Thursday night preseason games involving the Patriots. On the left, $163K in volume for Kalshi in 2025. On the right, $5.8M for last night's game. pic.twitter.com/NQKy0OvbOM
Prediction markets are already seeing a football-related bump during the NFL preseason.
For example, Kalshi recorded $162,934 in trading volume for last year’s Week 3 preseason matchup between the New England Patriots and New York Giants. This year’s Week 3 Patriots game against the Cleveland Browns generated more than $5.8 million.
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Tell it to the judge
Perhaps the biggest headwind facing prediction markets is their ongoing legal troubles.
The latest development there came Friday, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit siding against Kalshi in a long-running legal battle in Nevada.
The numerous lawsuits involving prediction markets mostly revolve around whether the exchanges can rely on federal legislation and regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to preempt state-level gambling laws.
However, the appeals court saw the trading of sports-related event contracts and sports betting as one and the same.
“The substance of the sports event contracts offered on Kalshi’s (designated contract market) is sports gambling, regardless of whether Kalshi calls them swaps,” Friday’s decision said.
Kalshi has been forced to restrict its business in Michigan, Nevada, and Washington. Other states may obtain similar restrictions on prediction markets.
Still, those three states already have state-regulated sports betting, and it’s unclear whether the numerous legal actions will be able to slow down the prediction market industry until the football season is over.
