Kalshi has introduced new trading ladder and escalator markets for NFL player markets that let users win a percentage of a full contract value for every statistic they accumulate.
The new contracts are only available for select NFL player-focused markets.
- The new markets still pay a maximum of $1 per contract.
- Escalator markets pay a fixed amount with every step toward a player milestone.
- Ladder markets use incremental payouts that scale higher as a player gets to their final goal.
Traditional prediction market contracts ask users to answer “Yes” or “No” when asked if a player will reach a certain milestone during a game. Ladder and escalator markets still require players to reach the specified amount to pay the full value of the contract, but they will also pay incremental values for players who fall short of their stated goal.
Each “Yes” contract will pay between $0.00 and $1.00 at settlement. Ladder markets pay the same for every unit, such as receptions or catches. For example, a player who makes six receptions in a game when they were supposed to make 10 will pay $.60 per contract.
Escalator markets are similar, but based on a scaled approach. Each step in the right direction adds an increasing amount to the total, meaning that the largest increases are closer to the full $1 value. Escalator markets are currently called “Slingshots” in the Kalshi prediction markets app.
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Ladder and escalator markets can both be found for select NFL games under the “props” market. Users only need to locate a player stat and select “Ladder” or “Slingshot” to see the earnings potential for a $10 trade at their value of choice.
All prices displayed are based on the current trading price, including fees.
Ladders and escalators are only available for receptions, receiving yards, rushing yards, and a fantasy ladder based on fantasy points.
Riding the escalator
Kalshi outlined an example of a receptions escalator with a maximum of 14 catches. Users would receive the following payouts as the player progressed toward the stated receptions goal:
- 7 catches: $0.125 per contract
- 10 catches: $0.3644 per contract
- 12 catches: $0.6297 per contract
- 14+ catches: $1 per contract
Yards escalators are broken into 10 stages, based on a maximum value prescribed by the trader. A receiving escalator with a maximum of 200 yards would pay $0 for 0-9 yards, $0.125 for 100 yards, $0.4218 for 150 yards, and $1 for 200 yards, all per contract.
Ladders and escalators are not locked during games. The Kalshi app will show what the current achieved statistics would pay for the position held by the user, and customers can buy and sell existing ladder and escalator contracts while games are in progress.
Contracts will still be honored for injured players if they participate in at least one play. Overtime counts toward a player’s statistics.
Any negative yards will count toward a player’s total. A final value below 0 will pay $0 and will not cost the user additional funds.
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Why pick ladder or escalator?
Ladder contracts suit individuals backing a player’s consistency, or “average” performance. Escalators suit players expected to deliver explosive nights, as they offer greater rewards at the top end of a player’s production.
The new prediction markets are part of Kalshi’s robust platform, which generated $75.4 billion in trades over the last 30 days, according to Aldrin Research. That includes nearly $4 billion in notional trading volume last NFL Sunday.
Ladder and escalator markets will both be available for this weekend’s upcoming matchups.
