Despite the Los Angeles Lakers’ four-game elimination from the NBA Playoffs, LeBron James is still widely expected to return for a record 24th season.
Leading prediction platform Kalshi gave James a 23% chance of retiring before the 2026-27 season.
Key Takeaways
- James said that he didn’t know if he would play again in 2026-27.
- Chances of retirement have steadily declined since the turn of the year.
- If James leaves the Lakers, the Cavaliers are the favorite to land him.
The Lakers were the largest underdogs of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder. That played out as it was expected to, as the defending champs swept the purple and gold out of the playoff bracket.
About an hour after the season-ending loss, James told reporters that he did not know if he would be back for another year.
“I don’t know what the future holds for me,” James said. “[I’ll] go back and recalibrate with my family and talk with them and spend some time with them, and then, when the time comes, obviously, you guys will know what I decide to do.”
"I don't know what the future holds for me."
— ESPN (@espn) May 12, 2026
LeBron addresses questions about retirement after Year 23 comes to an end. pic.twitter.com/TE78ENnOax
Kalshi’s market peaked at a 50% chance on June 30, 2025. Its highest mid-season value was 46% on Jan. 13, from which point the expected likelihood steadily declined.
Although James turned 41 on Dec. 30, he is still a spry youth compared to Kevin Willis — the oldest player to take an NBA court in the modern era — who was 44 years and 224 days old when he played his final game in 2007. “The King” would need to play in a game four seasons down the line in 2030 to steal the record.
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Where will LeBron play if he returns?
Kalshi’s prediction markets aren’t limited to whether or not James will retire. Users can also predict which team’s colors he will don next season, if he doesn’t walk away.
Staying with the Lakers or retiring is the market leader with a 49% probability, determined by real-time input from the Kalshi user base. Reuniting with the Cleveland Cavaliers for a third stint is the obvious second choice with a 33% chance.
The only other outcome with a probability greater than 10% is the Golden State Warriors, who have a 14% chance. The Warriors were reportedly interested in trading for James, who is friends with Draymond Green off the court, and won a gold medal at the 2024 Olympics with Stephen Curry as the starting point guard.
The San Antonio Spurs (6%), New York Knicks (5%), and Los Angeles Clippers (2%) are the remaining teams with an expected chance greater than 1%.
A possible retirement year with the Spurs would allow James to mentor Victor Wembanayama, although he wouldn’t team up with coach Gregg Popovich, for whom James previously said he wanted to play.
The Knicks were in the running to land LeBron ahead of “The Decision” in 2010, have made back-to-back conference finals, and are in a market capable of supporting LeBron’s superstardom.
Links to the Clippers likely stem from their coach, Tyronn Lue, who won a championship with James in Cleveland in 2016, and since James wouldn’t have to relocate.
NBA Finals picture
The upcoming NBA season is expected to begin in early October, meaning that there could be several months before James announces a decision on his future.
In the meantime, the Thunder are still dominating NBA Finals trading markets. Their 64% expected chance to win the championship is at the top of the board, followed by the Spurs (19%) and the Knicks (14%). The Detroit Pistons (4%), Cavaliers (3%), and Minnesota Timberwolves (2%) are all comfortably behind.
