Few sporting events are designed around betting quite like the Kentucky Derby.
Key Takeaways
- The Kentucky Derby attracts sharp and casual bettors.
- Renegade, So Happy, Commandment, and Further Ado are attracting a lot of betting attention.
- Sportsbooks are rolling out major promotions for the entire weekend.
While the explosion of legal sports betting only traces back to 2018, horse racing has been tied to regulated gambling for decades. Now, with so many jurisdictions offering legal wagering and the various ways to profit from the race, it’s no wonder handle records continue to fall.
“This is the biggest betting race in the U.S.,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers this week. “The reason is that there are so many horses and so much value in the race. Regardless of the type of bettor you are, you’ll find that this is a great race to bet.”
Last year, Churchill Downs alone reported that the Run for the Roses generated $234.4 million, surpassing 2024’s previous high of $210.7 million. Sports betting operators like DraftKings and Caesars treat this event like the Super Bowl of horse racing, offering customer-friendly promotions and numerous betting markets.
Saturday’s 152nd Kentucky Derby in Louisville will be no exception.
“The Derby never disappoints with hype, interest, and betting handle,” said Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “We are ahead of expectations on handle, and the weather looks to be a nonfactor now. We expect another classic for a historical race that always delivers.”
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Tough to handicap
With pari-mutuel wagering differing greatly from fixed-odds markets, the allure of hitting on long shots and big-odds wagers uniquely captures bettors. Avello said customers can find good prices for win, place, and show, but the real fun comes from the exotic markets like the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta that pay out huge odds from the pool of wagers.
With a large field of 20 horses - more than in most races - taking on a 1.25-mile track, both sharp bettors and Derby party-goers are able to hunt for value.
“This is such a tough race to handicap,” Avello said. “You look at the better horses, the ones that have had better success going into the race, and sometimes those horses are nowhere to be found. You try to find double-digit (odds) horses that you ca use in exactas and trifectas.”
While sportsbooks and racing operators will have all these types of bets, prediction markets won’t be offering Derby contracts after Churchill Downs asked Polymarket to remove race odds earlier this week.
Insights on the field
Renegade went off as the favorite this week, reaching 5-to-1 odds to win in Kentucky Derby betting as of Friday. That horse will start in a difficult post, however.
“Renegade, the early favorite, has a tough draw in 1 and will need some luck in traffic,” Mucklow said.
Avello said So Happy has taken considerable money, opening at 15-to-1 but sliding to 6-to-1 to be the winner. The DraftKings director really likes Further Ado at 7-to-1, while Commandment is a dominant winner with the same Kentucky Derby odds.
Those two horses, according to Mucklow, are first and second in handle and tickets at Caesars. Both operators mentioned there is a lot of interest in Japanese-owned Danon Bourbon at 14-to-1, as well as The Puma (8-to-1) and Chief Wallabee (9-to-1).
But the allure of this race is the unknown and how particular horses not used to a crowded track will handle the traffic. Avello said much of the result of the race comes down to when jockeys push their horses.
“Sometimes the race is lost for horses at the beginning,” Avello added. “The break of the race is very important. That’s what makes this race so interesting. If a couple of horses go out and really set a hot pace, there’s a chance they won’t be able to hold on, and that sets it up for horses to come from behind.”
Get those promotions
DraftKings, which offers horse racing wagering in over 25 jurisdictions, is running a special King of the Track promotion. When a customer opts into the promotion on Saturday, places a $5 bet on a winner, and that horse claims the Derby, that customer gets a share of a $1-million prize pool with others who bet the correct winner.
Avello said Sovereignty winning last year paid out $44.90 on the $5 bet, but those in King of the Track got another $291.
“This is something that is a must to play this because this is the best value promotion on the market for the Kentucky Derby,” Avello said.
DraftKings will be running other promotions, like bet matching, even for Friday night’s Kentucky Oaks, a popular race that features 3-year-old fillies.
The Caesars Racebook app is available in 23 states, while horse racing is integrated into Caesars Sportsbook accounts in 10 jurisdictions, allowing customers to get in on their promotions.
“Come race day, we will have matchups, Top 3, 5, 10, Race Winner, and of course, a horse to win the triple crown this year, which is currently at +1,100,” Mucklow said.
